The travel analysis trend study describes the development lines of the demand side of the vacation tourism in Germany, from the early 70's of the last century to the year 2030. The empirical basis for the study offers the travel analysis (RA) of the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen (FUR) registered association, which raises for 50 years continuously the travel behavior of the German population. Every year, around 7,500 people throughout Germany were personally interviewed to collect basic data representative of the population. The time series of the RA therefore provide a reliable overall picture of the development of tourism demand in Germany over the past decades. The development data always point into the future. The search for regular correlations in the past and their extrapolation into the future, taking into account significant influencing factors from the environment and the tourism offer, allow statements about the probable direction and strength of travel trends in the coming years.

For the current Travel Analysis Trend Study 2030, the proven basic principle of data based considering applies once again: The methodological, data and industry knowledge of the authors Martin Lohmann, Nadine Yarar, Ulf Sonntag and Dirk Schmücker, in addition to the time series data of the RA of the last 50 years, forms the basis for this.

What is the future with and after Corona?

With the appearance of the Corona pandemic in 2020, the longstanding and supposedly unstoppable growth path in tourism has come to a halt for the time being and has given way to concerns about whether, when and to what extent tourism will pick up speed again. The Travel Analysis Trend Study 2030 takes up this particular development and looks at short and medium-term deviations in the expected tourism demand for the years 2020 to 2025 - assuming that there will be no travel restrictions comparable to those in 2020 in the coming years. The consequences of the pandemic bring with them the opportunity and the necessity to replan the future of tourism. Knowledge of long-term trends provides an important basis for this.