Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung
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in: Biology Letters, Jahrgang 4, Nr. 5, 23.10.2008, S. 564-567.
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany
AU - Pompe, Sven
AU - Hanspach, Jan
AU - Badeck, Franz
AU - Klotz, Stefan
AU - Thuiller, Wilfried
AU - Kühn, Ingolf
PY - 2008/10/23
Y1 - 2008/10/23
N2 - We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally - averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.
AB - We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally - averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.
KW - Ecosystems Research
KW - Ecosystem
KW - Geography
KW - Germany
KW - Greenhouse Effect
KW - Models, Biological
KW - Plants
UR - http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=51549100885&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/1970eb28-5ecf-3794-ad2e-b243ef6c8464/
U2 - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231
DO - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231
M3 - Journal articles
C2 - 18664416
VL - 4
SP - 564
EP - 567
JO - Biology Letters
JF - Biology Letters
SN - 1744-9561
IS - 5
ER -