TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany

AU - Pompe, Sven

AU - Hanspach, Jan

AU - Badeck, Franz

AU - Klotz, Stefan

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Kühn, Ingolf

PY - 2008/10/23

Y1 - 2008/10/23

N2 - We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally - averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

AB - We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally - averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

KW - Ecosystems Research

KW - Ecosystem

KW - Geography

KW - Germany

KW - Greenhouse Effect

KW - Models, Biological

KW - Plants

UR - http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=51549100885&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/1970eb28-5ecf-3794-ad2e-b243ef6c8464/

U2 - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231

DO - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231

M3 - Journal articles

C2 - 18664416

VL - 4

SP - 564

EP - 567

JO - Biology Letters

JF - Biology Letters

SN - 1744-9561

IS - 5

ER -