A Proposal for Integrating Theories of Complexity for Better Understanding Global Systemic Risks

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • Armin Haas
  • Manfred Laubichler
  • Joffa Applegate
  • Gesine Steudle
  • Carlo C. Jaeger
The global financial crisis of 2008 has shown that the present financial system involves global systemic risks. The dimension of these risks is hard to grasp with the conceptual tools that have been developed to tackle conventional risks like fire or car accidents. While modern societies know quite well how to deal with conventional risks, we have not yet been equally successful at dealing with global systemic risks. For managing this kind of risks, one needs to understand critical features of specific global systems where many human agents interact in ever changing complex networks. Here we apply two specific dimensions of complexity theory for dealing with global systemic risk in an integrated fashion: normal accidents and extended evolution. Both of them have successfully been applied to the analysis of systemic risks. As a paradigmatic example of global systemic risks, we focus on the global financial crisis that began in 2008, and suggest that the future evolution of the financial system could either see a further increase in complexity, or a reversal to a less complex system. We explore and contrast the implications of normal accident theory and extended evolution perspectives and suggest a four-point research strategy informed by complexity theory for better understanding global systemic risks in financial systems.
Original languageEnglish
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume42
Issue number9
Pages (from-to)1945-1951
Number of pages7
ISSN0272-4332
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01.09.2022

Bibliographical note

The authors would like to acknowledge crucial support by the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities. The present publication is an outcome of the Academy's initiative “Systemic Risks as Prototypes of Dynamic Structure Generation,” launched by Klaus Lukas and Ortwin Renn, and skillfully administered by Ute Tintemann. This initiative conducted four workshops in the years 2017–2019; we thank the workshop participants for inspiring and fruitful comments and discussions. We also want to thank Ortwin Renn and Pia Schweizer for their steady support as editors of this special issue. Moreover, we want to thank Perry Mehrling, Steffen Murau, Joe Rini, Eckehard Häberle, Shade Shutters, and the members of the systemic risk research group of IASS for their intellectual inspiration, support, and enlightening discussions. We want to thank two anonymous reviewers and express our professional gratitude for their careful reviews. Together, these reviews helped us to streamline our article and sharpen its focus and its line of argument. The responsibility for errors stays, of course, with the authors.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

    Research areas

  • Transdisciplinary studies - extended evolution, Global financial crisis, global systemic risks, key currency, normal accidents

DOI

Recently viewed

Researchers

  1. Christian Rudeloff

Publications

  1. Understanding the properties of isospectral points and pairs in graphs
  2. Offline question answering over linked data using limited resources
  3. Anatomy of Discrete Kalman Filter and Its Implementation for Sensorless Velocity Estimation of Organic Actuator
  4. Exploring the processes of emergent leadership in a netball team
  5. Personalization strategies in digital mental health interventions: a systematic review and conceptual framework for depressive symptoms
  6. Informatik
  7. Assuring a safe, secure and sustainable space environment for space activities
  8. Shared mobility business models
  9. When Do Pictures Help Learning from Expository Text? Multimedia and Modality Effects in Primary Schools
  10. Digital language teaching after COVID-19: what can we learn from the crisis?
  11. Article 70 CISG
  12. Does ESG performance have an impact on financial performance?
  13. Forced exit from the joint-decision trap
  14. A Conceptual Structure of Justice - Providing a Tool to Analyse Conceptions of Justice
  15. Shifts in plant functional trait dynamics in relation to soil microbiome in modern and wild barley
  16. For whom are internet-based occupational mental health interventions effective? Moderators of internet-based problem-solving training outcome
  17. Correction to
  18. Fatigue crack propagation in AA5083 structures additively manufactured via multi-layer friction surfacing
  19. Schellings subjektivitätskritik
  20. Aim and structure of this book
  21. Adapting and evolving-learning place cooperation in change
  22. Assessing the environmental fate of S-metolachlor, its commercial product Mercantor Gold® and their photoproducts using a water-sediment test and in silico methods
  23. Impacts beyond experimentation - Conceptualising emergent impacts from long-term real-world laboratory processes
  24. Workshop
  25. Crisis Management by Subjectivation
  26. Orientierung im Realraum
  27. Geometrical Accuracy in Two-Stage Incremental Sheet Forming with Active Medium
  28. Different ways lead to ambidexterity
  29. Biodegradation of Flavonoids – Influences of structural features
  30. Controlling des Integrationsprozesses bei Mergers & Acquisitions
  31. Inner and Outer Realms
  32. Constructing Identities and Narrating the Self: Sherman Alexie’s Flight as a Fictional Memoir