A Proposal for Integrating Theories of Complexity for Better Understanding Global Systemic Risks

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

Authors

  • Armin Haas
  • Manfred Laubichler
  • Joffa Applegate
  • Gesine Steudle
  • Carlo C. Jaeger
The global financial crisis of 2008 has shown that the present financial system involves global systemic risks. The dimension of these risks is hard to grasp with the conceptual tools that have been developed to tackle conventional risks like fire or car accidents. While modern societies know quite well how to deal with conventional risks, we have not yet been equally successful at dealing with global systemic risks. For managing this kind of risks, one needs to understand critical features of specific global systems where many human agents interact in ever changing complex networks. Here we apply two specific dimensions of complexity theory for dealing with global systemic risk in an integrated fashion: normal accidents and extended evolution. Both of them have successfully been applied to the analysis of systemic risks. As a paradigmatic example of global systemic risks, we focus on the global financial crisis that began in 2008, and suggest that the future evolution of the financial system could either see a further increase in complexity, or a reversal to a less complex system. We explore and contrast the implications of normal accident theory and extended evolution perspectives and suggest a four-point research strategy informed by complexity theory for better understanding global systemic risks in financial systems.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
ZeitschriftRisk Analysis
Jahrgang42
Ausgabenummer9
Seiten (von - bis)1945-1951
Anzahl der Seiten7
ISSN0272-4332
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 01.09.2022

Zugehörige Projekte

  • Complexity or control? Paradigms for sustainable development

    Projekt: Forschung

DOI

Zuletzt angesehen

Publikationen

  1. A Study on the Performance of Adaptive Neural Networks for Haze Reduction with a Focus on Precision
  2. A structural property of the wavelet packet transform method to localise incoherency of a signal
  3. Advances in Dynamics, Optimization and Computation
  4. Special Issue The Discourse of Redundancy Introduction
  5. Measuring Learning Styles with Questionnaires Versus Direct Observation of Preferential Choice Behavior in Authentic Learning Situations
  6. Robust Control of Mobile Transportation Object with 3D Technical Vision System
  7. Homogenization methods for multi-phase elastic composites
  8. Finding Creativity in Predictability: Seizing Kairos in Chronos Through Temporal Work in Complex Innovation Processes
  9. Return of Fibonacci random walks
  10. Restoring Causal Analysis to Structural Equation ModelingReview of Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd Edition), by Judea Pearl
  11. Dividing Apples and Pears: Towards a Taxonomy for Agile Transformation
  12. Guest Editorial Special Issue on Sensors in Machine Vision of Automated Systems
  13. Efficient Order Picking Methods in Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems
  14. Gain Adaptation in Sliding Mode Control Using Model Predictive Control and Disturbance Compensation with Application to Actuators
  15. Derivative approximation using a discrete dynamic system
  16. Overcoming Multi-legacy Application Challenges through Building Dynamic Capabilities for Low-Code Adoption
  17. Control Allocation and Controller Tuning for an Over-Actuated Hexacopter Tilt-Rotor Applied for Precision Agriculture
  18. Practice and carryover effects when using small interaction devices
  19. A PHENOMENOGRAPHICAL STUDY OF CHILDRENS’ SPATIAL THOUGHT WHILE USING MAPS IN REAL SPACES
  20. Probabilistic approach to modelling of recession curves
  21. Failure to Learn From Failure Is Mitigated by Loss-Framing and Corrective Feedback
  22. A Cross-Classified CFA-MTMM Model for Structurally Different and Nonindependent Interchangeable Methods
  23. Continuous and Discrete Concepts for Detecting Transport Barriers in the Planar Circular Restricted Three Body Problem
  24. Language and Mathematics - Key Factors influencing the Comprehension Process in reality-based Tasks
  25. Public perceptions of CCS in context
  26. THE PARALLAX OF INDIVIDUATION
  27. Neural relational inference for disaster multimedia retrieval
  28. The relationship between audit committees, external auditors, and internal control systems
  29. Representation for interactive exercises
  30. Memory Acts: Memory without Representation.
  31. Using heuristic worked examples to promote solving of reality‑based tasks in mathematics in lower secondary school