Geographical patterns in prediction errors of species distribution models

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschung

Authors

  • Jan Hanspach
  • Ingolf Kühn
  • Oliver Schweiger
  • Sven Pompe
  • Stefan Klotz
Aim To describe and explain geographical patterns of false absence and false presence prediction errors that occur when describing current plant species ranges with species distribution models. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated species distribution models (generalized linear models) using a set of climatic variables and gridded distribution data for 1065 vascular plant species from the Atlas Florae Europaeae. We used randomly selected subsets for each species with a constant prevalence of 0.5, modelled the distribution 1000 times, calculated weighted averages of the model parameters and used these to predict the current distribution in Europe. Using a threshold of 0.5, we derived presence/absence maps. Comparing observed and modelled species distribution, we calculated the false absence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as absent, and the false presence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as present, on a 50 × 50km grid. Subsequently, we related both error rates to species range properties, land use and topographic variability within grid cells by means of simultaneous autoregressive models to correct for spatial autocorrelation. Results Grid-cell-specific error rates were not evenly distributed across Europe. The mean false absence rate was 0.16 ± 0.12 (standard deviation) and the mean false presence rate was 0.22 ± 0.13. False absence rates were highest in central Spain, the Alps and parts of south-eastern Europe, while false presence rates were highest in northern Spain, France, Italy and south-eastern Europe. False absence rates were high when range edges of species accumulated within a grid cell and when the intensity of human land use was high. False presence rates were positively associated with relative occurrence area and accumulation of range edges. Main conclusions Predictions for various species are not only accompanied by species-specific but also by grid-cell-specific errors. The latter are associated with characteristics of the grid cells but also with range characteristics of occurring species. Uncertainties of predictive species distribution models are not equally distributed in space, and we would recommend accompanying maps of predicted distributions with a graphical representation of predictive performance.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
ZeitschriftGlobal Ecology and Biogeography
Jahrgang20
Ausgabenummer5
Seiten (von - bis)779-788
Anzahl der Seiten10
ISSN1466-822X
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 01.09.2011
Extern publiziertJa

DOI

Zuletzt angesehen

Publikationen

  1. Mögliche Konsequenzen des Klimawandels für Pflanzenareale in Deutschland
  2. Comparing temperature data sources for use in species distribution models
  3. Natural vs. financial insurance in the management of public-good ecosystems
  4. Learner characteristics and information processing in multimedia learning
  5. A Decoupled MPC for Motion Control in Robotino Using a Geometric Approach
  6. Destinationsmanagement 3.0 – Auf dem Weg zu einem neuen Aufgabenverständnis
  7. 20 years of performance measurement in sustainable supply chain management
  8. Exploring Mexican lower secondary school students’ perceptions of inclusion
  9. Long-term effects of plant diversity and composition on plant stoichiometry
  10. Managing Strategic Alliances through a Community-Enabled Balanced Scorecard
  11. Influence of kinetic effects on the spectrum of a parallel electrode probe
  12. Regionalisierung der Energieversorgung und Förderung von Energiespeichern
  13. Three Meta-Analyses of Children’s Emotion Knowledge and Their School Success
  14. Programme zur Förderung emotionaler Kompetenzen in der mittleren Kindheit
  15. LivingCare - An autonomously learning, human centered home automation system
  16. A Sampling Framework for Uncertainty in Individual Environmental Decisions
  17. Exploring the potential role of priority effects for ecological restoration
  18. Business Cases for Sustainability and the Role of Business Model Innovation
  19. A critical review of policies and legislation protecting Tanzanian wetlands
  20. Die Haftung von Ratingagenturen gegenüber Kapitalanlegern: Von Sydney lernen?
  21. Folgenbeseitigungsanspruch bei unwirksamen Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen
  22. Der gemeinsame europäische Referenzrahmen als Grundlage für Sprachprüfungen
  23. International Corporate Sustainability Barometer: Introduction and Structure
  24. Partizipation von Studierenden in Studiengängen für beruflich Qualifizierte
  25. Efficacy of gamified Applications of mental Health Promotion and Prevention
  26. Privatrecht als Steuerungsinstrument für eine nachhaltige Wirtschaftsordnung?