Communicating Uncertainties About the Effects of Medical Interventions Using Different Display Formats

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

Authors

Communicating uncertainties in scientific evidence is important to accurately reflect scientific knowledge, increase public understanding of uncertainty, and to signal transparency and honesty in reporting. While techniques have been developed to facilitate the communication of uncertainty, many have not been empirically tested, compared for communicating different types of uncertainty, or their effects on different cognitive, trust, and behavioral outcomes have not been evaluated. The present study examined how a point estimate, imprecise estimate, conflicting estimates, or a statement about the lack of evidence about treatment effects, influenced participant's responses to communications about medical evidence. For each type of uncertainty, we adapted three display formats to communicate the information: tables, bar graphs, and icon arrays. We compared participant's best estimates of treatment effects, as well as effects on recall, subjective evaluations (understandability and usefuleness), certainty perceptions, perceptions of trustworthiness of the information, and behavioral intentions. We did not find any detrimental effects from communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to a point estimate across any outcome. Furthermore, there were more favorable responses to communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to lack of evidence, where participants estimated the treatment would improve outcomes by 30–50% relative to a placebo. There were no differences across display formats, suggesting that, if well-designed, it may not matter which format is used. Future research on specific display formats or uncertainty types and with larger sample sizes would be needed to detect small effects. Implications for the communication of uncertainty are discussed.

OriginalspracheEnglisch
ZeitschriftRisk Analysis
Jahrgang41
Ausgabenummer12
Seiten (von - bis)2220-2239
Anzahl der Seiten20
ISSN0272-4332
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 01.12.2021
Extern publiziertJa

Bibliographische Notiz

Funding Information:
The work was completed while the corresponding author was at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development. We would like to thank Clara Schirren for helping to implement the visual designs and Mirta Galesic for the many helpful comments on previous versions of the?article.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis

DOI

Zuletzt angesehen

Publikationen

  1. How selfish are self-expression values?
  2. The Meaning of Higher-Order Factors in Reflective-Measurement Models
  3. Laser shock peening process modelling and experimental validation of AA2198-T3 and AA2198-T8
  4. Atomkraft international
  5. Severely burdened individuals do not need to be excluded from internet-based and mobile-based stress management
  6. Toward a modular evaluation approach of real-world laboratories
  7. Can management-sponsored non-binding remuneration votes shape the executive compensation structure?
  8. Life satisfaction in Germany after reunification: Additional insights on the pattern of convergence
  9. The monetary value of cultural goods
  10. Stakeholder involvement for Water Framework Directive implementation in Germany
  11. Modelling habitat and spatial distribution of an endangered longhorn beetle
  12. Does SMS-support make a difference? Effectiveness of a two-week online-training to overcome procrastination.
  13. Attribution of Egoistic Versus Altruistic Motives to Acts of Helping
  14. Mythen der Edda in der deutschen Dichtung
  15. Introduction - How prenatal diagnosis is entangled in historical and social contexts
  16. The geometry of habitat fragmentation
  17. The reception of trust in different legal systems: some lessons for Vietnam; a comparative study
  18. Prototypische Lehr-Lern-Bausteine
  19. Investigations on hot tearing of Mg-Al binary alloys by using a new quantitative method
  20. Sustainable entrepreneurship: creating environmental solutions in light of planetary boundaries
  21. Glen Mills Schools
  22. Tanja Dückers - Essay
  23. Aufbruch
  24. Facilitating regional energy transition strategies:
  25. Learning to Rate Player Positioning in Soccer
  26. Evolution and transformation of early modern cosmological knowledge
  27. Diversity-enhanced canopy space occupation and leaf functional diversity jointly promote overyielding in tropical tree communities
  28. Geschäftsprozessintegration mit SAP
  29. Inter-annual rainfall variability in Central Asia - A contribution to the discussion on the importance of environmental stochasticity in drylands
  30. Which it seeks to advance in the wider world
  31. How do conflicts impact change in family businesses?
  32. Digital innovation and transformation
  33. Union Density and Determinations of Union Membership in 18 EU Countries
  34. Erforschung multidiskursiver Organisationen
  35. Collisionless damping in the spectra of active plasma resonance spectroscopic probes
  36. AAL-Onto
  37. Psychophysiological Correlates of Flow-Experience