Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • A. Walz
  • J.M Braendle
  • Daniel J. Lang
  • F. Brand
  • S. Briner
  • C. Elkin
  • C. Hirschi
  • R. Huber
  • H. Lischke
  • D.R. Schmatz

Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional socio-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor ("Global Trends") directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power.

Original languageEnglish
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume86
Pages (from-to)21-32
Number of pages12
ISSN0040-1625
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 07.2014

    Research areas

  • Sustainability Science - Downscaling socio-economic scenarios, Formalised scenario analysis, IPCC, Nested scenarios, Regional ecosystem service management

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Document assignment in multi-site search engines
  2. Participatory energy scenario development as dramatic scripting
  3. ZooKeys, unlocking Earth's incredible biodiversity and building a sustainable bridge into the public domain: From "print-based" to "web-based" taxonomy, systematics, and natural history ZooKeys Editorial Opening Paper
  4. Chronic effects of a static stretching intervention program on range of motion and tissue hardness in older adults
  5. Collaborative design prototyping in transdisciplinary research
  6. Using EEG movement tagging to isolate brain responses coupled to biological movements
  7. Space Systems Cross-Compatibility
  8. Enterprise Architecture Management Support for Digital Transformation Projects in Very Large Enterprises
  9. Employing A-B tests for optimizing prices levels in e-commerce applications
  10. Ideas, Complexity, and Innovation
  11. Tuning kalman filter in linear systems
  12. A Comparative Study for Fisheye Image Classification
  13. Developing ESD-specific professional action competence for teachers: knowledge, skills, and attitudes in implementing ESD at the school level
  14. NIF4OGGD - NLP interchange format for open German governmental data
  15. Rapid Prototyping of a Mechatronic Engine Valve Controller for IC Engines
  16. Developing shaping competence in informal setting at universities
  17. Nonautonomous control of stable and unstable manifolds in two-dimensional flows
  18. Special issue on Variational Pragmatics
  19. Foreword to applied data science, demo, and nectar tracks
  20. An introductional lecture on chaotic systems through Lorenz attractor and forced Lotka Volterra equation for interdisciplinary education
  21. Temporal and thermodynamic irreversibility in production theory
  22. Integrating teacher and student workspaces in a technology-enhanced mathematics lecture
  23. Consensus statement on defining and measuring negative effects of Internet interventions
  24. Polar Coordinates and Interactive Learning