Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • A. Walz
  • J.M Braendle
  • Daniel J. Lang
  • F. Brand
  • S. Briner
  • C. Elkin
  • C. Hirschi
  • R. Huber
  • H. Lischke
  • D.R. Schmatz

Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional socio-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor ("Global Trends") directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power.

Original languageEnglish
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume86
Pages (from-to)21-32
Number of pages12
ISSN0040-1625
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 07.2014

    Research areas

  • Sustainability Science - Downscaling socio-economic scenarios, Formalised scenario analysis, IPCC, Nested scenarios, Regional ecosystem service management

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. An introductional lecture on chaotic systems through Lorenz attractor and forced Lotka Volterra equation for interdisciplinary education
  2. The Role of Output Vocabulary in T2T LMs for SPARQL Semantic Parsing
  3. A blackboard architecture for workflows
  4. Modeling Grounding Processes in Chat-based CSCL
  5. Mapping Amazon's logistical footprint on the Ruhr
  6. Developing spatial biophysical accounting for multiple ecosystem services
  7. A cascade regulator using Lyapunov's PID-PID controllers for an aggregate actuator in automotive applications
  8. Other spaces
  9. The link between in- and external rotation of the auditor and the quality of financial accounting and external audit
  10. Communicating Uncertainties About the Effects of Medical Interventions Using Different Display Formats
  11. Effekte unterschiedlicher Kollaborationsskripte in chatbasiertem Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning am Beispiel von Lernprotokollen
  12. Root-root interactions: extending our perspective to be more inclusive of the range of theories in ecology and agriculture using in-vivo analyses
  13. What Role for Public Participation in Implementing the EU Floods Directive? A comparison with the Water Framework Directive, early evidence from Germany, and a research agenda
  14. § 37a
  15. Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports
  16. Entangled – But How?
  17. Explaining Investment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from German New Ventures
  18. Assessing Exposure of Pesticides to Bees
  19. Process Analyses of Grounding in Chat-based CSCL
  20. Wie lang sollte eine Rollstuhlrampe sein?
  21. Learner pragmatics at the discourse level: Staying “on topic” in a telecollaborative eTandem task
  22. Atomare Hinterlassenschaften
  23. Performancemanagement in Projekten durch Earned Value Management (EVM)
  24. A Unified Contextual Bandit Framework for Long- and Short-Term Recommendations
  25. Redemption Restored: The Star in the Context of Modernity
  26. Pathways for Transformation
  27. Domain adaptation of POS taggers without handcrafted features
  28. The Measurement of Grip-Strength in Automobiles
  29. Disentangling trade-offs and synergies around ecosystem services with the influence network framework
  30. HPLC and chemometrics-assisted UV-spectroscopy methods for the simultaneous determination of ambroxol and doxycycline in capsule.
  31. Work availability types and well-being in Germany–a latent class analysis among a nationally representative sample
  32. Tree ring isotopic composition, radial increment and height growth reveal provenance-specific reactions of Douglas-fir towards environmental parameters
  33. Part I: Too much change is not enough
  34. Mapping social values of ecosystem services: What is behind the map?
  35. Exercise of members' rights
  36. Utilizing Synchrotron Radiation for the Characterization of Biodegradable Magnesium Alloys — From Alloy Development to the Application as Implant Material
  37. Recycling-oriented fabrication of soft robots
  38. Design of a Master of Science Sustainable Chemistry