Estimation of Parameters in the SIR Model Using a Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Research output: Contributions to collected editions/worksArticle in conference proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Authors

The paper deals with the estimation of parameters in the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model of infectious disease transmission in populations using an algorithm based on a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. The used model in this contribution is based on the dynamics of predator and prey populations. A possible model is represented by the Lotka-Volterra model which is used in such kinds of competitive ecosystems. SIR models can be considered as a particular form of Lotka-Volterra models, in which susceptible and infected people represent the prey and predator. The main contribution of this investigation consists of showing how the model can reflect the real data using a low number of compartments in case the model parameters are estimated adaptively using an optimal procedure. A PSO method is used in a receding horizon window-like structure to estimate these parameters. The procedure is validated using real values of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, demonstrating a close matching.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Data-Driven Computing and Intelligent Systems - Selected Papers from ADCIS 2023
EditorsSwagatam Das, Snehanshu Saha, Carlos A. Coello Coello, Hemant Rathore, Jagdish Chand Bansal
Number of pages11
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland
Publication date2024
Pages157-167
ISBN (print)978-981-99-9530-1
ISBN (electronic)978-981-99-9531-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Event2nd International Conference on Advances in Data-driven Computing and Intelligent Systems - ADCIS 2023 - BITS Pilani, India
Duration: 21.09.202323.09.2023
Conference number: 2
https://scrs.in/conference/adcis23

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2024.

    Research areas

  • Lotka-Volterra model, Parameter identification, Particle Swarm Optimization
  • Engineering

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Neural Network-Based Finite-Time Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Input Dead-Zone and Saturation
  2. Enhancing Performance of Level System Modeling with Pseudo-Random Signals
  3. Graph Conditional Variational Models: Too Complex for Multiagent Trajectories?
  4. A sufficient asymptotic stability condition in generalised model predictive control to avoid input saturation
  5. Global temporal typing patterns in foreign language writing
  6. Ambient Intelligence and Knowledge Processing in Distributed Autonomous AAL-Components
  7. Exploration strategies, performance, and error consequences when learning a complex computer task
  8. Volume of Imbalance Container Prediction using Kalman Filter and Long Short-Term Memory
  9. Improving short-term academic performance in the flipped classroom using dynamic geometry software
  10. Analysis of long-term statistical data of cobalt flows in the EU
  11. Effectiveness of a guided multicomponent internet and mobile gratitude training program - A pragmatic randomized controlled trial
  12. A Quality Data Model Based on Asset Administration Shell Technology to Enable Autonomous Quality Control Loops
  13. Probabilistic approach to modelling of recession curves
  14. A statistical study of the spatial evolution of shock acceleration efficiency for 5 MeV protons and subsequent particle propagation
  15. Finding Creativity in Predictability: Seizing Kairos in Chronos Through Temporal Work in Complex Innovation Processes
  16. 'SPREAD THE APP, NOT THE VIRUS’ – AN EXTENSIVE SEM-APPROACH TO UNDERSTAND PANDEMIC TRACING APP USAGE IN GERMANY
  17. The effects of different on-line adaptive response time limits on speed and amount of learning in computer assisted instruction and intelligent tutoring
  18. Automated Invoice Processing: Machine Learning-Based Information Extraction for Long Tail Suppliers
  19. Training effects of two different unstable shoe constructions on postural control in static and dynamic testing situations
  20. Partitioned beta diversity patterns of plants across sharp and distinct boundaries of quartz habitat islands
  21. Modeling Conditional Dependencies in Multiagent Trajectories
  22. An Interactive Layers Model of Self-Regulated Learning and Cognitive Load
  23. The Low-Code Phenomenon: Mapping the Intellectual Structure of Research
  24. Understanding Partnering Strategies in the Low-Code Platform Ecosystem