The world is dominated by a crisis between mankind and nature. One indication of this crisis is the global spread of physical, chemical, and biological pollutants suffocating the environment, which shows that infinite growth as pursued by humanity is not possible in a finite world. Thus, with seven billion people on the planet, externalities are the rule, not the exception.
In this context, the following thesis introduces the global plastic pollution of the oceans as a negative external effect of plastic production and consumption which is becoming more severe, causing various measurable damages and potential risks for the future, such as poisoning and death of sea birds and fishes, contamination of beaches, hormone effects not only on animals but also on humans, and an overall negative impact on the ecosystems of the ocean. Based on this situation, the question of possible economic solutions to exploit plastic pollution in oceans and reduce the external effects was posed and answered in this thesis.
To enable an overall economic analysis, the environmental pollution of the ocean with plastic is converted into the general economic theory of supply and demand, demonstrating that the plastic pollution can be modeled as an environmental bad for which an economic optimum should be determined. However, with the enormous size of the ocean, the various emitting parties of plastic pollution, the small size of the plastic parts, as well as the knowledge gap e.g. regarding clear cause-effect relations or actual diffusion, plastic pollution in oceans is a problem so complex and fraught with uncertainty that the economic optimum cannot be determined yet.
Consequently, aspects of game theory and models to deal with uncertainty are implemented. As a result, the individual willingness to pay for clean oceans as an environmental good is identified as a key aspect for valuating plastic pollution in oceans and influencing the decision-making of polluters. However, the willingness to pay is not yet determinable due to the uncertainty connected to the issues. Therefore, expert interviews are performed to reduce uncertainty in this thesis.
Following the general economic modeling, current and potential damages are listed, embedded into a risk portfolio, and, where possible, converted into monetary costs as a foundation for a comprehensive cost-benefit-analysis of plastic waste recycling solutions.
To sufficiently answer the core question of the thesis, potential solutions for the economic exploitation of plastic pollution in oceans along the flow chain of plastic into the ocean are analyzed. Implementing a plastic waste collection and recycling project in a metropolitan area can be identified as most promising. To be able to calculate feasibility, Mumbai is chosen as the sample case. For the actual concept of the project, a successful project from Buenos Aires and the results of several expert interviews are considered, leading to a final approach with a lean character that involves local people and, thus, improves not only the environmental but also the social situation.
VI ABSTRACT
Finally, the profitability calculation which is conducted demonstrates that sufficient monetary benefits can be gained from such a project. A sensitivity analysis on core parameters underlines this evaluation. However, the calculation also reveals that the monetary impact of reducing the external effects is very low. Consequently, the sample project does, by itself, not have a sufficient effect on the problem of plastic pollution in oceans. Furthermore, the calculation relies on several assumptions due to marked deficits of the underlying information basis, emphasizing the need for a more detailed local analysis with an extended feasibility study.
In summary, the initial question of the thesis can be answered positively, as the economic analysis of recycling solutions to exploit plastic pollution in oceans showed definite potential for approaches in metropolitan areas. And even though further efforts are necessary to reduce the identified gaps in research and education, the time for action is now, and the following thesis illustrates a possible path that can be followed.