Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • Astrid Kause
  • W. Bruine de Bruin
  • Johannes Persson
  • H. Thorén
  • L. Olsson
  • A. Wallin
  • S. Dessai
  • N. Vareman

Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2
JournalClimatic Change
Volume173
Issue number1-2
Number of pages18
ISSN0165-0009
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01.07.2022

Bibliographical note

Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. The research was funded by the Swedish Research Council Formas Linnaeus grant LUCID, Lund University Centre of Excellence for Integration of Social and Natural Dimensions of Sustainability (259–2008-1718; to AK, JP, HT, LO, and NV); the Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences’ VBE program, Science and Proven Experience (M14-0138:1; to WBdB, JP, NV, and AW); the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (CEDM) through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation and Carnegie Mellon University (SES–0949710 and SES–1463492; to WBdB).

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

    Research areas

  • Communication, Confidence, Expert judgment, IPCC, Probability, Scientific assessment, Uncertainty
  • Psychology

Documents

DOI

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports
  2. Determinants of promotions in an internal labour market
  3. Process limits of extrusion of multimaterial components
  4. Unusual two‐bond 13C, 13C coupling constants in sulphones
  5. Design and control of an electromagnetic valve actuator
  6. Verfahren und Einrichtung zum Regeln einer Regelgröße
  7. A toolkit for robust risk assessment using F-divergences
  8. Parameterized Synthetic Image Data Set for Fisheye Lens
  9. Risk preferences under heterogeneous environmental risk
  10. Accurate welding line prediction in extrusion processes
  11. Risk preferences under heterogeneous environmental risk
  12. Assessing Trust by Disclosure in Online Social Networks
  13. Die Bewertung des Informationssystems einer Unternehmung
  14. Image compression based on periodic principal components
  15. Representation of Integration Profiles Using an Ontology
  16. Intra-firm Wage Compression and Cost Coverage of Training
  17. Intermetallic phase characteristics in the Mg–Nd–Zn system
  18. Markups and Concentration in the Context of Digitization
  19. The reputation costs of executive misconduct accusations
  20. Linear free vibrations with uncertain initial conditions
  21. Efficiency of rational learning with private information
  22. The reputation costs of executive misconduct accusations
  23. Imperfect information and consumer inflation expectations
  24. Neural Combinatorial Optimization on Heterogeneous Graphs
  25. BRANGE EFFECTS IN HEDONIC EVALUATION OF OLFACTORY STIMULI
  26. Emotional foundations of the public climate change divide
  27. Financing behavior in new ventures - Evidence from Germany
  28. Planning and control of logistics for offshore wind farms
  29. On the Thermoregulation in the human microvascular system
  30. Handlungsregulation bei der Steuerung chaotischer Systeme
  31. The role of the situation model in mathematical modelling
  32. Dynamische und zukunftsorientierte Bestandsdimensionierung
  33. Cross-document coreference resolution using latent features
  34. Friction riveting of 3D printed polyamide 6 with AA 6056-T6
  35. Können plakatbezogene Nudges zum Treppensteigen animieren?