Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • Astrid Kause
  • W. Bruine de Bruin
  • Johannes Persson
  • H. Thorén
  • L. Olsson
  • A. Wallin
  • S. Dessai
  • N. Vareman

Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2
JournalClimatic Change
Volume173
Issue number1-2
Number of pages18
ISSN0165-0009
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01.07.2022

Bibliographical note

Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. The research was funded by the Swedish Research Council Formas Linnaeus grant LUCID, Lund University Centre of Excellence for Integration of Social and Natural Dimensions of Sustainability (259–2008-1718; to AK, JP, HT, LO, and NV); the Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences’ VBE program, Science and Proven Experience (M14-0138:1; to WBdB, JP, NV, and AW); the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (CEDM) through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation and Carnegie Mellon University (SES–0949710 and SES–1463492; to WBdB).

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

    Research areas

  • Communication, Confidence, Expert judgment, IPCC, Probability, Scientific assessment, Uncertainty
  • Psychology

Documents

DOI

Recently viewed

Researchers

  1. Daniel J. Lang

Publications

  1. How many organic compounds are graph-theoretically nonplanar?
  2. Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives on turbulent superstructures in Rayleigh-Bénard convection
  3. Smart Multi-coil Inductive Power Tranmission with IoT Based Visulization
  4. The generative drawing principle in multimedia learning
  5. Developing ESD-specific professional action competence for teachers: knowledge, skills, and attitudes in implementing ESD at the school level
  6. Recontextualizing context
  7. Development of a Mobile Application for People with Panic Disorder as augmentation for an Internet-based Intervention
  8. Investigations on hot tearing of Mg-Al binary alloys by using a new quantitative method
  9. Training in Components of Problem-Solving Competence
  10. The Crowd in Flux
  11. Safer Spaces
  12. Nonlinear analyses of self-paced reading
  13. Perception of Space and Time in a Created Environment
  14. Solution for the direct kinematics problem of the general stewart-gough platform by using only linear actuators’ orientations
  15. Usage pattern-based exposure screening as a simple tool for the regional priority-setting in environmental risk assessment of veterinary antibiotics
  16. IT Governance in Scaling Agile Frameworks
  17. Effect of yttrium addition on lattice parameter, Young's modulus and vacancy of magnesium
  18. What has gone wrong with application development? Who is the culprit?
  19. Explosive behaviour and long memory with an application to European bond yield spreads
  20. Introduction
  21. CaO dissolution during melting and solidification of a Mg-10 wt.% CaO alloy detected with in situ synchrotron radiation diffraction
  22. Self-Compassion as a Facet of Neuroticism? A Reply to the Comments of Neff, Tóth-Király, and Colosimo (2018)
  23. Not only biocidal products
  24. Extending Internet of Things Enterprise Architectures by Digital Twins Exemplified in the Context of the Hamburg Port Authority
  25. Microeconometric Studies on Firm Behavior and Performance