A flexible global warming index for use in an integrated approach to climate change assessment
Research output: Working paper › Working papers
Authors
Global  Warming  Potential  (GWP)  is  an  index  used  to  measure  the  relative  accumulated radiative effect of a tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) compared to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO2). Due to the different lifetimes of the GHGs, the GWPs are often measured  over  a  fixed  and  long  period  of  time  (usually  20,  100,  or  500  years).  The  disadvantage  of  this  time-approach  is  that  the  index  may  give  a good indication of the relative average  effect  of  each  GHG  or  total  radiative  forcing  over  the  chosen  time  horizon,  but  it  may  not  describe  accurately  the  marginal contribution  of  each  GHG  to  the overall climate change at a particularpoint in time, and conditional on a particular climate change policy scenario which is being considered. In this paper, we propose an alternative  approach  which  measures  the  relative  contribution  of  each  GHG  to  total  radiative  forcing  more  accurately  and  in  accordance  with  the  current  policy  context  being considered. We suggest the use of a marginal global warming potential(MGWP) rather than the existing (total or cumulative) GWP index. The MGWP can be calculated accurately and endogenously within a climate model. This is then linked to the marginal abatement  cost  (MAC)  of  the  gas,  estimated  within  an  economic  model  linked  to  the  climate  model.  In  this  way  the  balancing  of  the  benefits  and  costs  associated  with  the  reduction  of  a  unit  of  emission  of  the  GHG  can  be  achieved  more  accurately.  We  illustrate the use of the new approach in an illustrative experiment, using a multi-sector multi-gas and multi-regional computable general equilibrium economic model (GTAP-E)  coupled  with  a  reduced  form  climate  change  model  (ICLIPS  Climate  Model,  or  ICM). The results show that the new approach can significantly improve on the existing method  of  measuring  the  trade-offs  between  different  GHGs  in  their  contribution  to  a  climate change objective.
| Original language | English | 
|---|---|
| Place of Publication | Berlin | 
| Publisher | Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) | 
| Number of pages | 33 | 
| Publication status | Published - 01.11.2005 | 
| Externally published | Yes | 
- Economics - Climate change, Global warming potential, Integrated assessment, Marginal abatement cost, Model coupling
 
Research areas
- SDG 13 - Climate Action
 
