The Increasing Importance of Economic Conditions on Fertility
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Rostock: Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung, 2010. (MPIDR Working Paper ; Vol. 2010, No. 014).
Research output: Working paper › Working papers
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TY - UNPB
T1 - The Increasing Importance of Economic Conditions on Fertility
AU - Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan
AU - Goldstein, Joshua R.
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - This paper investigates whether there has been a fundamental change in theimportance of economic conditions on fertility. Through the 1980s econometricstudies had found at best a mixed, neutral or negative effect of economicconditions on fertility. Notably, Butz and Ward (1979) concluded that fertilitywas counter-cyclical, with fertility falling in good times, as the opportunitycosts of childbearing rose.More recently, there have been signs that uctuations in fertility have beenpro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher birth rates,and the recent recession with lower birth rates.In this paper, we use panel methods to study short term changes in aggregatefertility and economic measures in OECD countries from 1976-2008.We find indeed that fertility became positively associated with good economicconditions.Furthermore, the increasing importance of economic conditions was detectedfor both tempo and quantum.
AB - This paper investigates whether there has been a fundamental change in theimportance of economic conditions on fertility. Through the 1980s econometricstudies had found at best a mixed, neutral or negative effect of economicconditions on fertility. Notably, Butz and Ward (1979) concluded that fertilitywas counter-cyclical, with fertility falling in good times, as the opportunitycosts of childbearing rose.More recently, there have been signs that uctuations in fertility have beenpro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher birth rates,and the recent recession with lower birth rates.In this paper, we use panel methods to study short term changes in aggregatefertility and economic measures in OECD countries from 1976-2008.We find indeed that fertility became positively associated with good economicconditions.Furthermore, the increasing importance of economic conditions was detectedfor both tempo and quantum.
KW - Economics
KW - Demographie
KW - Gender and Diversity
KW - Fertilität
M3 - Working papers
T3 - MPIDR Working Paper
BT - The Increasing Importance of Economic Conditions on Fertility
PB - Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung
CY - Rostock
ER -