TY - UNPB

T1 - Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland

AU - Siliverstovs, Boriss

AU - Ötsch, Reinald

AU - Kemfert, C.

AU - Jaeger, Carlo C.

AU - Haas, Armin

AU - Kremers, Hans

PY - 2008/12

Y1 - 2008/12

N2 - This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

AB - This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

KW - Economics

KW - climate change

KW - GEV

KW - Bayesian modelling

KW - Great Alpine Heat Wave

M3 - Working papers

T3 - DIW Discussion Papers

BT - Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland

PB - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

CY - Berlin

ER -