Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland
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Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), 2008. (DIW Discussion Papers; No. 840).
Research output: Working paper › Working papers
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland
AU - Siliverstovs, Boriss
AU - Ötsch, Reinald
AU - Kemfert, C.
AU - Jaeger, Carlo C.
AU - Haas, Armin
AU - Kremers, Hans
PY - 2008/12
Y1 - 2008/12
N2 - This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.
AB - This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.
KW - Economics
KW - climate change
KW - GEV
KW - Bayesian modelling
KW - Great Alpine Heat Wave
M3 - Working papers
T3 - DIW Discussion Papers
BT - Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland
PB - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
CY - Berlin
ER -