Evaluation of a temporal causal model for predicting the mood of clients in an online therapy

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

Background Self-reported client assessments during online treatments enable the development of statistical models for the prediction of client improvement and symptom development. Evaluation of these models is mandatory to ensure their validity. Methods For this purpose, we suggest besides a model evaluation based on study data the use of a simulation analysis. The simulation analysis provides insight into the model performance and enables to analyse reasons for a low predictive accuracy. In this study, we evaluate a temporal causal model (TCM) and show that it does not provide reliable predictions of clients' future mood levels. Results Based on the simulation analysis we investigate the potential reasons for the low predictive performance, for example, noisy measurements and sampling frequency. We conclude that the analysed TCM in its current form is not sufficient to describe the underlying psychological processes. Conclusions The results demonstrate the importance of model evaluation and the benefit of a simulation analysis. The current manuscript provides practical guidance for conducting model evaluation including simulation analysis.

Original languageEnglish
JournalBMJ mental health
Volume23
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)27-33
Number of pages7
ISSN1362-0347
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11.02.2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

    Research areas

  • mood prediction, online treatment, predictive modelling, temporal causal model
  • Business informatics

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Almost-invariant sets and invariant manifolds
  2. Knowledge and social learning for sustainable development
  3. Norms and variation in L2 pragmatics
  4. Does Social Exclusion Improve Detection of Real and Fake Smiles?
  5. Medial erzeugte Befindlichkeiten
  6. Lifelong learning in practice at Leuphana University
  7. Productivity and size of the export market
  8. Repräsentative Wahlstatistik
  9. Using a leverage points perspective to compare social-ecological systems: a case study on rural landscapes
  10. Greater fit and a greater gap
  11. Case Study: Between radiation and imagination
  12. Formation mechanism of the abnormal texture during extrusion in Mg-Y-Sm-Zn-Zr alloy
  13. Article 6
  14. Continous preventive diagnosis for cardiovascular diseases based on stochastic modeling
  15. Anisotropic wavelet bases and thresholding
  16. AAL-Onto
  17. EU Normative Power and Regionalism
  18. Elterliche Milieus
  19. Partitioning Behavior of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Compounds between Pore Water and Sediment in Two Sediment Cores from Tokyo Bay, Japan
  20. More than only skin deep: Appearance self-concept predicts most of secondary school students’ self-esteem
  21. Formative Assessment in Mathematics Instruction
  22. Kinder als Manager
  23. Using gender theories to analyse nature resource management
  24. Climate change as an element of sustainability communication
  25. Higher drought sensitivity of radial growth of European beech in managed than in unmanaged forests
  26. Introduction
  27. The 'Lüneburg Sustainable University' Research and Development Project
  28. Reply to
  29. Integrated driver rostering problem in public bus transit
  30. Eco-Innovation in SMEs
  31. Visualizations of projected rainfall change in the United Kingdom
  32. Escape. Computerspiele als Kulturtechnik
  33. A panel cointegration rank test with structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence
  34. Plant traits affecting herbivory on tree recruits in highly diverse subtropical forests
  35. Re-Introducing Walther Schücking
  36. Wir sind ihr
  37. Multiscale process simulation of residual stress fields of laser beam welded precipitation hardened AA6082
  38. Atmospheric fate of poly- and perfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs)