Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds

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This study tests for a break in the persistence of EMU government bond yield spreads examining data from France, Italy and Spain and using German interest rates as a kind of benchmark. The results reported here provide evidence for breaks between 2006 and 2008. The persistence of the yield spreads against German government bonds has increased significantly after this period. This could be a sign of higher sovereign credit risk (and possibly even redenomination risk) caused by the debt crisis in the euro area. We find clear indications for non-stationary behavior after the breakpoints and empirical evidence for positive excess kurtosis and GARCH-effects when persistence increases.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Banking and Finance
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)109-118
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 04.2014

    Research areas

  • Changing persistence, Fractional integration, Testing uncovered interest parity