Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025
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Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025. / Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia.
In: The Energy Journal, Vol. 30, No. SI 9, 2009, p. 137-150.Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025
AU - Holz, Franziska
AU - Hirschhausen, Christian von
AU - Kemfert, Claudia
N1 - Published in Volume 30, Special Issue of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European natural gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (share of ~1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European natural gas markets, but less than in the current situation.
AB - We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European natural gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (share of ~1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European natural gas markets, but less than in the current situation.
KW - Economics
KW - Energy Security and Geopolitics
KW - Energy Security
KW - Energy Modeling
KW - Energy Data
KW - Policy Analysis
KW - Natural Gas-Pipelines
KW - Natural Gas - Markets and Prices
U2 - 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-9
DO - 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-9
M3 - Journal articles
VL - 30
SP - 137
EP - 150
JO - The Energy Journal
JF - The Energy Journal
SN - 0195-6574
IS - SI 9
ER -