Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand: A Review of Models and Scenarios
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In: Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 49, No. 1, 18.10.2024, p. 249-279.
Research output: Journal contributions › Scientific review articles › Research
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand
T2 - A Review of Models and Scenarios
AU - Wiedenhofer, Dominik
AU - Streeck, Jan
AU - Wiese, Frauke
AU - Verdolini, Elena
AU - Mastrucci, Alessio
AU - Ju, Yiyi
AU - Boza-Kiss, Benigna
AU - Min, Jihoon
AU - Norman, Jonathan
AU - Wieland, Hanspeter
AU - Bento, Nuno
AU - Godoy León, María Fernanda
AU - Magalar, Leticia
AU - Mayer, Andreas
AU - Gingrich, Simone
AU - Hayashi, Ayami
AU - Jupesta, Joni
AU - Ünlü, Gamze
AU - Niamir, Leila
AU - Cao, Tao
AU - Zanon-Zotin, Marianne
AU - Plank, Barbara
AU - Vélez-Henao, Johan
AU - Masanet, Eric
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - Akimoto, Keigo
AU - Grubler, Arnulf
AU - van Ruijven, Bas
AU - Pauliuk, Stefan
N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 by the author(s).
PY - 2024/10/18
Y1 - 2024/10/18
N2 - Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.
AB - Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.
KW - climate change mitigation
KW - ecological economics
KW - IAM
KW - industrial ecology
KW - integrated assessment modeling
KW - sustainable resource use
KW - Sustainability Governance
KW - Environmental Governance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105007045477&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428
DO - 10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428
M3 - Scientific review articles
AN - SCOPUS:105007045477
VL - 49
SP - 249
EP - 279
JO - Annual Review of Environment and Resources
JF - Annual Review of Environment and Resources
SN - 1543-5938
IS - 1
ER -