Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand: A Review of Models and Scenarios

Research output: Journal contributionsScientific review articlesResearch

Authors

  • Dominik Wiedenhofer
  • Jan Streeck
  • Frauke Wiese
  • Elena Verdolini
  • Alessio Mastrucci
  • Yiyi Ju
  • Benigna Boza-Kiss
  • Jihoon Min
  • Jonathan Norman
  • Hanspeter Wieland
  • Nuno Bento
  • Leticia Magalar
  • Andreas Mayer
  • Simone Gingrich
  • Ayami Hayashi
  • Joni Jupesta
  • Gamze Ünlü
  • Leila Niamir
  • Tao Cao
  • Marianne Zanon-Zotin
  • Barbara Plank
  • Johan Vélez-Henao
  • Eric Masanet
  • Volker Krey
  • Keigo Akimoto
  • Arnulf Grubler
  • Bas van Ruijven
  • Stefan Pauliuk

Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAnnual Review of Environment and Resources
Volume49
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)249-279
Number of pages31
ISSN1543-5938
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18.10.2024
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024 by the author(s).

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