TY - JOUR

T1 - Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand

T2 - A Review of Models and Scenarios

AU - Wiedenhofer, Dominik

AU - Streeck, Jan

AU - Wiese, Frauke

AU - Verdolini, Elena

AU - Mastrucci, Alessio

AU - Ju, Yiyi

AU - Boza-Kiss, Benigna

AU - Min, Jihoon

AU - Norman, Jonathan

AU - Wieland, Hanspeter

AU - Bento, Nuno

AU - Godoy León, María Fernanda

AU - Magalar, Leticia

AU - Mayer, Andreas

AU - Gingrich, Simone

AU - Hayashi, Ayami

AU - Jupesta, Joni

AU - Ünlü, Gamze

AU - Niamir, Leila

AU - Cao, Tao

AU - Zanon-Zotin, Marianne

AU - Plank, Barbara

AU - Vélez-Henao, Johan

AU - Masanet, Eric

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - Akimoto, Keigo

AU - Grubler, Arnulf

AU - van Ruijven, Bas

AU - Pauliuk, Stefan

N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 by the author(s).

PY - 2024/10/18

Y1 - 2024/10/18

N2 - Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.

AB - Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.

KW - climate change mitigation

KW - ecological economics

KW - IAM

KW - industrial ecology

KW - integrated assessment modeling

KW - sustainable resource use

KW - Sustainability Governance

KW - Environmental Governance

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105007045477&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428

DO - 10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428

M3 - Scientific review articles

AN - SCOPUS:105007045477

VL - 49

SP - 249

EP - 279

JO - Annual Review of Environment and Resources

JF - Annual Review of Environment and Resources

SN - 1543-5938

IS - 1

ER -