Hybrid models for future event prediction
Research output: Contributions to collected editions/works › Article in conference proceedings › Research › peer-review
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Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management. ed. / Bettina Berendt; Arjen de Vries; Wenfei Fan; Craig Macdonald; Iadh Ounis; Ian Ruthven. New York: Association for Computing Machinery, Inc, 2011. p. 1981-1984.
Research output: Contributions to collected editions/works › Article in conference proceedings › Research › peer-review
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TY - CHAP
T1 - Hybrid models for future event prediction
AU - Amodeo, Giuseppe
AU - Blanco, Roi
AU - Brefeld, Ulf
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - We present a hybrid method to turn off-the-shelf information retrieval (IR) systems into future event predictors. Given a query, a time series model is trained on the publication dates of the retrieved documents to capture trends and periodicity of the associated events. The periodicity of historic data is used to estimate a probabilistic model to predict future bursts. Finally, a hybrid model is obtained by intertwining the probabilistic and the time-series model. Our empirical results on the New York Times corpus show that autocorrelation functions of time-series suffice to classify queries accurately and that our hybrid models lead to more accurate future event predictions than baseline competitors.
AB - We present a hybrid method to turn off-the-shelf information retrieval (IR) systems into future event predictors. Given a query, a time series model is trained on the publication dates of the retrieved documents to capture trends and periodicity of the associated events. The periodicity of historic data is used to estimate a probabilistic model to predict future bursts. Finally, a hybrid model is obtained by intertwining the probabilistic and the time-series model. Our empirical results on the New York Times corpus show that autocorrelation functions of time-series suffice to classify queries accurately and that our hybrid models lead to more accurate future event predictions than baseline competitors.
KW - Informatics
KW - Event prediction
KW - Web searches
KW - Forecasting
KW - Information retrieval
KW - Knowledge management
KW - Regression analysis
KW - Time series
KW - World Wide Web
KW - Business informatics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=83055161561&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1145/2063576.2063870
DO - 10.1145/2063576.2063870
M3 - Article in conference proceedings
AN - SCOPUS:83055161561
SP - 1981
EP - 1984
BT - Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
A2 - Berendt, Bettina
A2 - de Vries, Arjen
A2 - Fan, Wenfei
A2 - Macdonald, Craig
A2 - Ounis, Iadh
A2 - Ruthven, Ian
PB - Association for Computing Machinery, Inc
CY - New York
T2 - 20th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management - CIKM '11
Y2 - 24 October 2011 through 28 October 2011
ER -