TY - JOUR

T1 - Exposure of the Irish population to PBDEs in food

T2 - consideration of parameter uncertainty and variability for risk assessment

AU - Trudel, David

AU - Tlustos, Christina

AU - von Goetz, Natalie

AU - Scheringer, Martin

AU - Reichert, Peter

AU - Hungerbühler, Konrad

PY - 2011/7

Y1 - 2011/7

N2 - Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are brominated flame retardants used to retard the ignition and/or spread of fire. PBDEs are used in various consumer products, such as textiles, mattresses and TV screens. This study presents a chemical risk assessment for the Irish population based on exposure to PBDEs from food. Special regard is given to the influence of parameter uncertainty and variability on the margins of safety. To quantitatively model uncertainty and variability in concentration data and variability in consumer behavior, a hierarchical probabilistic model was constructed. This model was evaluated using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (2D-MCS) approach. By considering uncertainty and variability in concentration data, margins of safety (MOS) were derived that are lower by a factor of ∼2 compared to MOS based on dose estimates that only consider variability. The lowest MOS is 7.5 × 10(4) for BDE-99, with impaired spermatogenesis as toxic endpoint. Assuming an MOS of 10(4) as acceptable, we conclude that there is no significant risk for human health through intake of contaminated food. To investigate whether additional measurements could improve the quality of dose estimates, the statistic "uncertainty-to-variability (UVR)" was developed. By applying the UVR to our dose estimates, we show that, in our case, the datasets contain little uncertainty and additional measurements would not significantly improve the quality of dose estimates.

AB - Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are brominated flame retardants used to retard the ignition and/or spread of fire. PBDEs are used in various consumer products, such as textiles, mattresses and TV screens. This study presents a chemical risk assessment for the Irish population based on exposure to PBDEs from food. Special regard is given to the influence of parameter uncertainty and variability on the margins of safety. To quantitatively model uncertainty and variability in concentration data and variability in consumer behavior, a hierarchical probabilistic model was constructed. This model was evaluated using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (2D-MCS) approach. By considering uncertainty and variability in concentration data, margins of safety (MOS) were derived that are lower by a factor of ∼2 compared to MOS based on dose estimates that only consider variability. The lowest MOS is 7.5 × 10(4) for BDE-99, with impaired spermatogenesis as toxic endpoint. Assuming an MOS of 10(4) as acceptable, we conclude that there is no significant risk for human health through intake of contaminated food. To investigate whether additional measurements could improve the quality of dose estimates, the statistic "uncertainty-to-variability (UVR)" was developed. By applying the UVR to our dose estimates, we show that, in our case, the datasets contain little uncertainty and additional measurements would not significantly improve the quality of dose estimates.

KW - Chemistry

KW - polybromitated diphenyl ether

KW - food exposure

KW - Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation

KW - uncertainty-to-variability

KW - risk assessment

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79960289787&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/19440049.2011.572082

DO - 10.1080/19440049.2011.572082

M3 - Journal articles

C2 - 21656413

VL - 28

SP - 943

EP - 955

JO - Food Additives and Contaminants - Part A Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment

JF - Food Additives and Contaminants - Part A Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment

SN - 1944-0049

IS - 7

ER -