House price expectations
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In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 218, 01.02.2024, p. 379-398.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - House price expectations
AU - Gohl, Niklas
AU - Haan, Peter
AU - Michelsen, Claus
AU - Weinhardt, Felix
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2024/2/1
Y1 - 2024/2/1
N2 - This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.
AB - This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.
KW - Economics
KW - House price expectations
KW - Housing
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85180600992&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/a9f048dd-c25f-375b-951e-4bb24232dd17/
U2 - 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015
DO - 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015
M3 - Journal articles
VL - 218
SP - 379
EP - 398
JO - Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
JF - Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
SN - 0167-2681
ER -