TY - JOUR

T1 - House price expectations

AU - Gohl, Niklas

AU - Haan, Peter

AU - Michelsen, Claus

AU - Weinhardt, Felix

N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank Basit Zafar and Theodora Boneva for valuable feedback, as well as participants at various conferences and workshops. All remaining errors are our own. We gratefully acknowledge financial support by the German Research Foundation through CRC TRR 190, 280092119 and Leibnitz Association through K258/2019 . Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2024/2/1

Y1 - 2024/2/1

N2 - This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

AB - This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

KW - Economics

KW - House price expectations

KW - Housing

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85180600992&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015

DO - 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015

M3 - Journal articles

VL - 218

SP - 379

EP - 398

JO - Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

JF - Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

SN - 0167-2681

ER -