House price expectations

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • Niklas Gohl
  • Peter Haan
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Felix Weinhardt
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Volume218
Pages (from-to)379-398
Number of pages20
ISSN0167-2681
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01.02.2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.

    Research areas

  • Economics - House price expectations, Housing

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