Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

Authors

We provide empirical evidence for pronounced time-variation in the persistence of real oil prices. In particular, we find episodes of mild explosiveness next to periods with random walk and also mean-reverting behavior. We address the question whether dynamic persistence can be directly related to macro-financial variables, spot-futures spreads, spill-over effects from commodities and global real economic activity. Alongside these variables, we use a large data set of more than one-hundred fifty potential determinants featuring, for example, further oil-related variables (production and inventories) and key macroeconomic series for the G7 countries. By using model averaging techniques, we robustly account for the inherent model uncertainty when dealing with such many potential explanatory variables. As it turns out, the one and only significant measure to explain time-varying oil price persistence is the index of global real economic activity by Kilian (2009). Other variables related to e.g. supply shocks or speculation are, however, insignificant. In line with recent findings, we argue that fundamentals rather than speculation were the drivers of the explosive oil price in the 2000s.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer104328
ZeitschriftEnergy Economics
Jahrgang85
Anzahl der Seiten10
ISSN0140-9883
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 01.2020

Bibliographische Notiz

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.

DOI

Zuletzt angesehen

Publikationen

  1. Leading Knowledge Exploration and Exploitation in Schools
  2. The impact of weather variability and climate change on pesticide applications in the US - An empirical investigation
  3. Multivariate Optimization of Analytical Methodology and a First Attempt to an Environmental Risk Assessment of β-Blockers in Hospital Wastewater
  4. Wirtschaften in Netzen
  5. Environmental performance, carbon performance and earnings management
  6. Higher wages in exporting firms: self-selection, export effect, or both?
  7. Three-dimensional microstructural analysis of Mg-Al-Zn alloys by synchrotron-radiation-based microtomography
  8. Integrating Art and Education for Sustainable Development. A Transdisciplinary Working Process in the Context of Culture and Sustainability
  9. Dimension theoretical properties of generalized Baker's transformations
  10. Exploring the potential of using priority effects during ecological restoration to resist biological invasions in the neotropics
  11. Cascade MIMO P-PID Controllers Applied in an Over-actuated Quadrotor Tilt-Rotor
  12. Datenmodellierung mit dem Entity-Relationship-Ansatz
  13. Ludic Interfaces
  14. The dynamics of humanistic and biospheric altruism in conflicting choice environments
  15. Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes
  16. Quantifying circular economy pathways of decommissioned onshore wind turbines: The case of Denmark and Germany
  17. Silver Work
  18. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS or Bio-CCS)
  19. Utilization of organic residues using heterotrophic microalgae and insects
  20. machine/readable. Reflextions upon the ›knowledge‹ of images
  21. The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services
  22. Characterization of the Basic Types of Lunar Highland Breccias by Quantitative Textural Analysis
  23. Coauthoring collaborative strategy when voices are many and authority is ambiguous
  24. Bright Spots for Local WFD Implementation Through Collaboration with Nature Conservation Authorities?
  25. Missiology: An Introduction to the Foundations, History, and Strategies of World Missions
  26. Constructing Audiences, Defining Art
  27. iTaukei ways of knowing and managing mangroves for ecosystem-based adaptation
  28. The effects of an active development of the mental model in the training process
  29. Sustainable Development and Material Flows