The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey
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in: European Journal of Political Economy, Jahrgang 36, 12.2014, S. 41-54.
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval
T2 - A survey
AU - Berlemann, Michael
AU - Enkelmann, Sören
PY - 2014/12
Y1 - 2014/12
N2 - Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment and inflation to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.
AB - Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment and inflation to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.
KW - Economics
KW - Inflation
KW - Unemployment
KW - approval
KW - d72
KW - h11
KW - inflation
KW - presidential popularity
KW - unemployment
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84905229483&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.06.005
DO - 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.06.005
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:84905229483
VL - 36
SP - 41
EP - 54
JO - European Journal of Political Economy
JF - European Journal of Political Economy
SN - 0176-2680
ER -