TY - JOUR

T1 - The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval

T2 - A survey

AU - Berlemann, Michael

AU - Enkelmann, Sören

PY - 2014/12

Y1 - 2014/12

N2 - Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment and inflation to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.

AB - Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment and inflation to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.

KW - Economics

KW - Inflation

KW - Unemployment

KW - approval

KW - d72

KW - h11

KW - inflation

KW - presidential popularity

KW - unemployment

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84905229483&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.06.005

DO - 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.06.005

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:84905229483

VL - 36

SP - 41

EP - 54

JO - European Journal of Political Economy

JF - European Journal of Political Economy

SN - 0176-2680

ER -