TY - JOUR

T1 - Positive Thinking About the Future in Newspaper Reports and Presidential Addresses Predicts Economic Downturn

AU - Sevincer, A. Timur

AU - Wagner, Greta

AU - Kalvelage, Johanna

AU - Oettingen, Gabriele

PY - 2014/4

Y1 - 2014/4

N2 - Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

AB - Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

KW - computerized content analysis

KW - economic performance

KW - financial crisis

KW - goals

KW - motivation

KW - performance

KW - positive thinking

KW - presidential rhetoric

KW - thinking about the future

KW - Psychology

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84898863243&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/a2d047ba-c3b9-3799-aaad-0ac4456bdc68/

U2 - 10.1177/0956797613518350

DO - 10.1177/0956797613518350

M3 - Journal articles

C2 - 24496968

AN - SCOPUS:84898863243

VL - 25

SP - 1010

EP - 1017

JO - Psychological Science

JF - Psychological Science

SN - 0956-7976

IS - 4

ER -