Positive Thinking About the Future in Newspaper Reports and Presidential Addresses Predicts Economic Downturn
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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Positive Thinking About the Future in Newspaper Reports and Presidential Addresses Predicts Economic Downturn. / Sevincer, A. Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna et al.
in: Psychological Science, Jahrgang 25, Nr. 4, 04.2014, S. 1010-1017.Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Positive Thinking About the Future in Newspaper Reports and Presidential Addresses Predicts Economic Downturn
AU - Sevincer, A. Timur
AU - Wagner, Greta
AU - Kalvelage, Johanna
AU - Oettingen, Gabriele
PY - 2014/4
Y1 - 2014/4
N2 - Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.
AB - Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.
KW - computerized content analysis
KW - economic performance
KW - financial crisis
KW - goals
KW - motivation
KW - performance
KW - positive thinking
KW - presidential rhetoric
KW - thinking about the future
KW - Psychology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84898863243&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/a2d047ba-c3b9-3799-aaad-0ac4456bdc68/
U2 - 10.1177/0956797613518350
DO - 10.1177/0956797613518350
M3 - Journal articles
C2 - 24496968
AN - SCOPUS:84898863243
VL - 25
SP - 1010
EP - 1017
JO - Psychological Science
JF - Psychological Science
SN - 0956-7976
IS - 4
ER -