Hybrid models for future event prediction
Publikation: Beiträge in Sammelwerken › Aufsätze in Konferenzbänden › Forschung › begutachtet
Authors
We present a hybrid method to turn off-the-shelf information retrieval (IR) systems into future event predictors. Given a query, a time series model is trained on the publication dates of the retrieved documents to capture trends and periodicity of the associated events. The periodicity of historic data is used to estimate a probabilistic model to predict future bursts. Finally, a hybrid model is obtained by intertwining the probabilistic and the time-series model. Our empirical results on the New York Times corpus show that autocorrelation functions of time-series suffice to classify queries accurately and that our hybrid models lead to more accurate future event predictions than baseline competitors.
Originalsprache | Englisch |
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Titel | Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management |
Herausgeber | Bettina Berendt, Arjen de Vries, Wenfei Fan, Craig Macdonald, Iadh Ounis, Ian Ruthven |
Anzahl der Seiten | 4 |
Erscheinungsort | New York |
Verlag | Association for Computing Machinery, Inc |
Erscheinungsdatum | 2011 |
Seiten | 1981-1984 |
ISBN (elektronisch) | 978-145030717-8 |
DOIs | |
Publikationsstatus | Erschienen - 2011 |
Extern publiziert | Ja |
Veranstaltung | 20th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management - CIKM '11 - Glasgow, Großbritannien / Vereinigtes Königreich Dauer: 24.10.2011 → 28.10.2011 http://www.cikm2011.org/ |
- Informatik
- Wirtschaftsinformatik