Productivity and schedule reliability are two major objectives for production areas. Companies can influence both objectives by the applied sequencing rule. While a due-date oriented sequencing rule supports the schedule reliability, a setup-time oriented sequencing rule increases productivity. Thus, a field of tension between these objectives exists in which companies have to position their production areas. To support the positioning, this paper provides a model for calculating the output lateness distribution of a production system for a setup-time oriented and a First-In-First-Out sequencing rule. Furthermore, the effect of the applied rule on productivity of production systems is analyzed.