Field-Based Assessment of Key Influence Factors for Throughput Time Prediction in Job Shop Manufacturing

Research output: Contributions to collected editions/worksArticle in conference proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Authors

To determine delivery dates for customers, plan production capacities, and schedule and coordinate orders, it is of great importance for production planners to work with accurately planned Throughput Times for production orders. However, conventional estimation methods, which are based on fundamental statistical principles and expert knowledge, often fail to adequately account for the numerous factors that can lead to discrepancies between planned and actual outcomes. These discrepancies can have substantial ramifications. As production systems become more complex, the limitations of these conventional approaches have become increasingly evident. The employment of machine learning models holds promise in enhancing the precision of Throughput Time prediction. However, selecting the appropriate data is paramount for training a machine learning model. To achieve this objective, it is essential to identify the key factors that influence the prediction of planned Throughput Times. Despite its relevance, no systematic investigation has yet been conducted on these factors, especially in job shop manufacturing, where orders are processed according to the Make-to-Order principle. To address this research gap, data sets from five Small and Medium-sized Enterprises with job shop production are evaluated and key factors for determining planned Throughput Times are identified. Utilizing the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining, the characteristics of the individual steps involved in constructing a prediction model are elaborated.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Production Management Systems. Cyber-Physical-Human Production Systems : Human-AI Collaboration and Beyond - 44th IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference, APMS 2025, Proceedings
EditorsHajime Mizuyama, Eiji Morinaga, Toshiya Kaihara, Tomomi Nonaka, Gregor von Cieminski, David Romero
Number of pages15
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland
Publication date2026
Pages201-215
ISBN (print)9783032035493
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2026
Event44th IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2025 - Kamakura, Japan
Duration: 31.08.202504.09.2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2026.

    Research areas

  • feature selection, Production planning, Throughput Time prediction
  • Engineering