Landy, JF, Liam, M, Ding, IL, Viganola, D, Tierney, W, Dreber, A, Johannesson, M, Pfeiffer, T, Ebersole, CR, Gronau, QF, Ly, A, Bergh, DVD, Marsman, M, Derks, K, Wagenmaker, EJ, Proctor, A, Bartels, DM, Bauman, CW, Brady, WJ, Cheung, F, Cimpian, A, Dohle, S, Donnellan, MB, Hahn, A, Hall, MP, Jiménez-Leal, W, Johnson, DJ, Lucas, RE, Monin, B, Montealegre, A, Mullen, E, Pang, J, Ray, J, Reinero, DA, Reynolds, J, Sowden, W, Storage, D, Su, R, Tworek, CM, Van Bavel, JJ, Walco, D, Wills, J, Xu, X, Yam, KC, Yang, X, Cunningham, WA, Schweinsberg, M, Urwitz, M, Uhlmann, EL, Adamkovic, M, Alaei, R, Albers, CJ, Allard, A, Anderson, IA, Andreychik, MR, Babinčák, P, Baker, BJ, Baník, G, Baskin, E, Bavolar, J, Berkers, RMWJ, Białek, M, Blanke, J, Breuer, J, Brizi, A, Brown, SEV, Brühlmann, F, Bruns, H, Caldwell, L, Campourcy, JF, Chan, EY, Chang, YP, Cheung, BY, Chin, A, Cho, KW, Columbus, S, Conway, P, Corretti, CA, Craig, AW, Curran, PG, Danvers, AF, Dawson, IGJ, Day, MV, Dietl, E, Doerflinger, JT, Dominici, A, Dranseika, V, Edelsbrunner, PA, Edlund, JE, Fisher, M, Fung, A
, Genschow, O, Gnambs, T, Goldberg, MH, Graf-Vlachy, L, Hafenbrack, AC, Hafenbrädl, S, Hartanto, A, Heffner, JP, Hilgard, J, Holzmeister, F, Horchak, OV, Huang, TST, Hüffmeier, J, Hughes, S, Hussey, I, Imhoff, R, Jaeger, B, Jamro, K, Johnson, SGB, Jones, A, Keller, L, Kombeiz, O, Krueger, LE, Lantian, A, Laplante, JP, Lazarevic, LB, Leclerc, J, Legate, N, Leonhardt, JM, Leung, DW, Levitan, CA, Lin, H, Liu, Q, Liuzza, MT, Locke, KD, Ly, AL, MacEacheron, M, Madan, CR, Manley, H, Mari, S, Martončik, M, McLean, SL, McPhetres, J, Mercier, BG, Michels, C, Mullarkey, MC, Musser, ED, Nalborczyk, L, Nilsonne, G, Otis, NG, Otner, SMG, Otto, PE, Oviedo-Trespalacios, O, Paruzel-Czachura, M, Pellegrini, F, Pereira, VMD, Perfecto, H, Pfuhl, G, Phillips, MH, Plonsky, O, Pozzi, M, Puric, DB, Raymond-Barker, B, Redman, DE, Reynolds, CJ, Ropovik, I, Röseler, L, Ruessmann, JK, Ryan, WH, Sablaturova, N, Schuepfer, KJ, Schütz, A, Sirota, M, Stefan, M, Stocks, EL, Strosser, GL, Suchow, JW, Szabelska, A, Tey, KS, Tiokhin, L, Troian, J, Utesch, T, Vásquez-Echeverriá, A, Vaughn, LA, Verschoor, M, Helversen, BV, Wallisch, P, Weissgerber, SC, Wichman, AL, Woike, JK, Žeželj, I, Zickfeld, JH, Ahn, Y, Blaettchen, PF, Kang, X, Lee, YJ, Parker, PM, Parker, PA, Song, JS, Very, MA & Wong, L 2020, '
Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results',
Psychological Bulletin, vol. 146, no. 5, pp. 451-479.
https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000220@article{dd49e901233e4c37aa842c6b5099c5b0,
title = "Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results",
abstract = "To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N = 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = —0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.",
keywords = "conceptual replications, crowdsourcing, forecasting, research robustness, scientific transparency, Business psychology",
author = "Landy, {Justin F.} and Miaolei Liam and Ding, {Isabel L.} and Domenico Viganola and Warren Tierney and Anna Dreber and Magnus Johannesson and Thomas Pfeiffer and Ebersole, {Charles R.} and Gronau, {Quentin F.} and Alexander Ly and Bergh, {Don Van Den} and Maarten Marsman and Koen Derks and Wagenmaker, {Eric Jan} and Andrew Proctor and Bartels, {Daniel M.} and Bauman, {Christopher W.} and Brady, {William J.} and Felix Cheung and Andrei Cimpian and Simone Dohle and Donnellan, {M. Brent} and Adam Hahn and Hall, {Michael P.} and William Jim{\'e}nez-Leal and Johnson, {David J.} and Lucas, {Richard E.} and Beno{\^I}t Monin and Andres Montealegre and Elizabeth Mullen and Jun Pang and Jennifer Ray and Reinero, {Diego A.} and Jesse Reynolds and Walter Sowden and Daniel Storage and Runkun Su and Tworek, {Christina M.} and {Van Bavel}, {Jay J.} and Daniel Walco and Julian Wills and Xiaobing Xu and Yam, {Kai Chi} and Xiaoyu Yang and Cunningham, {William A.} and Martin Schweinsberg and Molly Urwitz and Uhlmann, {Eric L.} and Mat{\'u} Adamkovic and Ravin Alaei and Albers, {Casper J.} and Aur{\'e}lien Allard and Anderson, {Ian A.} and Andreychik, {Michael R.} and Peter Babin{\v c}{\'a}k and Baker, {Bradley J.} and Gabriel Ban{\'i}k and Ernest Baskin and Jozef Bavolar and Berkers, {Ruud M.W.J.} and Michal Bia{\l}ek and Joel Blanke and Johannes Breuer and Ambra Brizi and Brown, {Stephanie E.V.} and Florian Br{\"u}hlmann and Hendrik Bruns and Leigh Caldwell and Campourcy, {Jean Fran{\c c}ois} and Chan, {Eugene Y.} and Chang, {Yen Ping} and Cheung, {Benjamin Y.} and Alycia Chin and Cho, {Kit W.} and Simon Columbus and Paul Conway and Corretti, {Conrad A.} and Craig, {Adam W.} and Curran, {Paul G.} and Danvers, {Alexander F.} and Dawson, {Ian G.J.} and Day, {Martin V.} and Erik Dietl and Doerflinger, {Johannes T.} and Alice Dominici and Vilius Dranseika and Edelsbrunner, {Peter A.} and Edlund, {John E.} and Matthew Fisher and Anna Fung and Oliver Genschow and Timo Gnambs and Goldberg, {Matthew H.} and Lorenz Graf-Vlachy and Hafenbrack, {Andrew C.} and Sebastian Hafenbr{\"a}dl and Andree Hartanto and Heffner, {Joseph P.} and Joseph Hilgard and Felix Holzmeister and Horchak, {Oleksandr V.} and Huang, {Tina S.T.} and Joachim H{\"u}ffmeier and Sean Hughes and Ian Hussey and Roland Imhoff and Bastian Jaeger and Konrad Jamro and Johnson, {Samuel G.B.} and Andrew Jones and Lucas Keller and Olga Kombeiz and Krueger, {Lacy E.} and Anthony Lantian and Laplante, {Justin P.} and Lazarevic, {Ljiljana B.} and Jonathan Leclerc and Nicole Legate and Leonhardt, {James M.} and Leung, {Desmond W.} and Levitan, {Carmel A.} and Hause Lin and Qinglan Liu and Liuzza, {Marco Tullio} and Locke, {Kenneth D.} and Ly, {Albert L.} and Melanie MacEacheron and Madan, {Christopher R.} and Harry Manley and Silvia Mari and Marcel Marton{\v c}ik and McLean, {Scott L.} and Jonathon McPhetres and Mercier, {Brett G.} and Corinna Michels and Mullarkey, {Michael C.} and Musser, {Erica D.} and Ladislas Nalborczyk and Gustav Nilsonne and Otis, {Nicholas G.} and Otner, {Sarah M.G.} and Otto, {Philipp E.} and Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios and Mariola Paruzel-Czachura and Francesco Pellegrini and Pereira, {Vitor M.D.} and Hannah Perfecto and Gerit Pfuhl and Phillips, {Mark H.} and Ori Plonsky and Maura Pozzi and Puric, {Danka B.} and Brett Raymond-Barker and Redman, {David E.} and Reynolds, {Caleb J.} and Ivan Ropovik and Lukas R{\"o}seler and Ruessmann, {Janna K.} and Ryan, {William H.} and Nika Sablaturova and Schuepfer, {Kurt J.} and Astrid Sch{\"u}tz and Miroslav Sirota and Matthias Stefan and Stocks, {Eric L.} and Strosser, {Garrett L.} and Suchow, {Jordan W.} and Anna Szabelska and Tey, {Kian Siong} and Leonid Tiokhin and Jais Troian and Till Utesch and Alejandro V{\'a}squez-Echeverri{\'a} and Vaughn, {Leigh Ann} and Mark Verschoor and Helversen, {Bettina Von} and Pascal Wallisch and Weissgerber, {Sophia C.} and Wichman, {Aaron L.} and Woike, {Jan K.} and Iris {\v Z}e{\v z}elj and Zickfeld, {Janis H.} and Yeonsin Ahn and Blaettchen, {Philippe F.} and Xi Kang and Lee, {Yoo Jin} and Parker, {Philip M.} and Parker, {Paul A.} and Song, {Jamie S.} and Very, {May Anne} and Lynn Wong",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, American Psychological Association.",
year = "2020",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1037/bul0000220",
language = "English",
volume = "146",
pages = "451--479",
journal = "Psychological Bulletin",
issn = "0033-2909",
publisher = "American Psychological Association Inc.",
number = "5",
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests
T2 - Making transparent how design choices shape research results
AU - Landy, Justin F.
AU - Liam, Miaolei
AU - Ding, Isabel L.
AU - Viganola, Domenico
AU - Tierney, Warren
AU - Dreber, Anna
AU - Johannesson, Magnus
AU - Pfeiffer, Thomas
AU - Ebersole, Charles R.
AU - Gronau, Quentin F.
AU - Ly, Alexander
AU - Bergh, Don Van Den
AU - Marsman, Maarten
AU - Derks, Koen
AU - Wagenmaker, Eric Jan
AU - Proctor, Andrew
AU - Bartels, Daniel M.
AU - Bauman, Christopher W.
AU - Brady, William J.
AU - Cheung, Felix
AU - Cimpian, Andrei
AU - Dohle, Simone
AU - Donnellan, M. Brent
AU - Hahn, Adam
AU - Hall, Michael P.
AU - Jiménez-Leal, William
AU - Johnson, David J.
AU - Lucas, Richard E.
AU - Monin, BenoÎt
AU - Montealegre, Andres
AU - Mullen, Elizabeth
AU - Pang, Jun
AU - Ray, Jennifer
AU - Reinero, Diego A.
AU - Reynolds, Jesse
AU - Sowden, Walter
AU - Storage, Daniel
AU - Su, Runkun
AU - Tworek, Christina M.
AU - Van Bavel, Jay J.
AU - Walco, Daniel
AU - Wills, Julian
AU - Xu, Xiaobing
AU - Yam, Kai Chi
AU - Yang, Xiaoyu
AU - Cunningham, William A.
AU - Schweinsberg, Martin
AU - Urwitz, Molly
AU - Uhlmann, Eric L.
AU - Adamkovic, Matú
AU - Alaei, Ravin
AU - Albers, Casper J.
AU - Allard, Aurélien
AU - Anderson, Ian A.
AU - Andreychik, Michael R.
AU - Babinčák, Peter
AU - Baker, Bradley J.
AU - Baník, Gabriel
AU - Baskin, Ernest
AU - Bavolar, Jozef
AU - Berkers, Ruud M.W.J.
AU - Białek, Michal
AU - Blanke, Joel
AU - Breuer, Johannes
AU - Brizi, Ambra
AU - Brown, Stephanie E.V.
AU - Brühlmann, Florian
AU - Bruns, Hendrik
AU - Caldwell, Leigh
AU - Campourcy, Jean François
AU - Chan, Eugene Y.
AU - Chang, Yen Ping
AU - Cheung, Benjamin Y.
AU - Chin, Alycia
AU - Cho, Kit W.
AU - Columbus, Simon
AU - Conway, Paul
AU - Corretti, Conrad A.
AU - Craig, Adam W.
AU - Curran, Paul G.
AU - Danvers, Alexander F.
AU - Dawson, Ian G.J.
AU - Day, Martin V.
AU - Dietl, Erik
AU - Doerflinger, Johannes T.
AU - Dominici, Alice
AU - Dranseika, Vilius
AU - Edelsbrunner, Peter A.
AU - Edlund, John E.
AU - Fisher, Matthew
AU - Fung, Anna
AU - Genschow, Oliver
AU - Gnambs, Timo
AU - Goldberg, Matthew H.
AU - Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz
AU - Hafenbrack, Andrew C.
AU - Hafenbrädl, Sebastian
AU - Hartanto, Andree
AU - Heffner, Joseph P.
AU - Hilgard, Joseph
AU - Holzmeister, Felix
AU - Horchak, Oleksandr V.
AU - Huang, Tina S.T.
AU - Hüffmeier, Joachim
AU - Hughes, Sean
AU - Hussey, Ian
AU - Imhoff, Roland
AU - Jaeger, Bastian
AU - Jamro, Konrad
AU - Johnson, Samuel G.B.
AU - Jones, Andrew
AU - Keller, Lucas
AU - Kombeiz, Olga
AU - Krueger, Lacy E.
AU - Lantian, Anthony
AU - Laplante, Justin P.
AU - Lazarevic, Ljiljana B.
AU - Leclerc, Jonathan
AU - Legate, Nicole
AU - Leonhardt, James M.
AU - Leung, Desmond W.
AU - Levitan, Carmel A.
AU - Lin, Hause
AU - Liu, Qinglan
AU - Liuzza, Marco Tullio
AU - Locke, Kenneth D.
AU - Ly, Albert L.
AU - MacEacheron, Melanie
AU - Madan, Christopher R.
AU - Manley, Harry
AU - Mari, Silvia
AU - Martončik, Marcel
AU - McLean, Scott L.
AU - McPhetres, Jonathon
AU - Mercier, Brett G.
AU - Michels, Corinna
AU - Mullarkey, Michael C.
AU - Musser, Erica D.
AU - Nalborczyk, Ladislas
AU - Nilsonne, Gustav
AU - Otis, Nicholas G.
AU - Otner, Sarah M.G.
AU - Otto, Philipp E.
AU - Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar
AU - Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola
AU - Pellegrini, Francesco
AU - Pereira, Vitor M.D.
AU - Perfecto, Hannah
AU - Pfuhl, Gerit
AU - Phillips, Mark H.
AU - Plonsky, Ori
AU - Pozzi, Maura
AU - Puric, Danka B.
AU - Raymond-Barker, Brett
AU - Redman, David E.
AU - Reynolds, Caleb J.
AU - Ropovik, Ivan
AU - Röseler, Lukas
AU - Ruessmann, Janna K.
AU - Ryan, William H.
AU - Sablaturova, Nika
AU - Schuepfer, Kurt J.
AU - Schütz, Astrid
AU - Sirota, Miroslav
AU - Stefan, Matthias
AU - Stocks, Eric L.
AU - Strosser, Garrett L.
AU - Suchow, Jordan W.
AU - Szabelska, Anna
AU - Tey, Kian Siong
AU - Tiokhin, Leonid
AU - Troian, Jais
AU - Utesch, Till
AU - Vásquez-Echeverriá, Alejandro
AU - Vaughn, Leigh Ann
AU - Verschoor, Mark
AU - Helversen, Bettina Von
AU - Wallisch, Pascal
AU - Weissgerber, Sophia C.
AU - Wichman, Aaron L.
AU - Woike, Jan K.
AU - Žeželj, Iris
AU - Zickfeld, Janis H.
AU - Ahn, Yeonsin
AU - Blaettchen, Philippe F.
AU - Kang, Xi
AU - Lee, Yoo Jin
AU - Parker, Philip M.
AU - Parker, Paul A.
AU - Song, Jamie S.
AU - Very, May Anne
AU - Wong, Lynn
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, American Psychological Association.
PY - 2020/5/1
Y1 - 2020/5/1
N2 - To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N = 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = —0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
AB - To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N = 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = —0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
KW - conceptual replications
KW - crowdsourcing
KW - forecasting
KW - research robustness
KW - scientific transparency
KW - Business psychology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85081412411&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1037/bul0000220
DO - 10.1037/bul0000220
M3 - Journal articles
C2 - 31944796
AN - SCOPUS:85081412411
VL - 146
SP - 451
EP - 479
JO - Psychological Bulletin
JF - Psychological Bulletin
SN - 0033-2909
IS - 5
ER -
