Communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings: a qualitative systematic review

Research output: Journal contributionsScientific review articlesResearch

Authors

  • Astrid Kause
  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin
  • Samuel Domingos
  • Neha Mittal
  • Jason Lowe
  • Fai Fung

We undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to arrive at recommendations for shaping communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. Climate communications often report on scientific findings that contain different sources of uncertainty. Potential users of these communications are members of the general public, as well as decision makers and climate advisors from government, business and non-governmental institutions worldwide. Many of these users may lack formal training in climate science or related disciplines. We systematically review the English-language peer-reviewed empirical literature from cognitive and behavioral sciences and related fields, which examines how users perceive communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. We aim to summarize how users' responses to communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings are associated with characteristics of the decision context, including climate change consequences and types of uncertainty as well as user characteristics, such as climate change beliefs, environmental worldviews, political ideology, numerical skills, and others. We also aimed to identify what general recommendations for communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings can be delineated. We find that studies of communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings substantially varied in how they operationalized uncertainty, as well as how they measured responses. Studies mostly focused on uncertainty stemming from conflicting information, such as diverging model estimates or experts, or from expressions of imprecision such as ranges. Among other things, users' understanding was improved when climate communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings were presented with explanations about why climate information was uncertain, and when ranges were presented with lower and upper numerical bounds. Users' understanding also improved if they expressed stronger beliefs about climate change, or had better numerical skills. Based on these findings, we provide emerging recommendations on how to best present communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings; and we identify research gaps.

Original languageEnglish
Article number053005
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume16
Issue number5
Number of pages20
ISSN1748-9318
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01.05.2021
Externally publishedYes

Documents

DOI

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Exports and Firm Characteristics in Germany: A Survey of Empirical Studies (1991 to 2011)
  2. Participation as a Mode of Conflict
  3. Gesundheitserziehung in Schulen
  4. The Clock of the Long-Now
  5. QALD-9-ES: A Spanish Dataset for Question Answering Systems
  6. Das Anfertigen von Notizen als Lernstrategie beim mathematischen Modellieren
  7. Resilience, Entrepreneurship and ICT
  8. Capacity building for transformational leadership and transdisciplinarity
  9. Importance of scrub-pastureland mosaics for wild-living cats occurrence in a Mediterranean area: Implications for the conservation of the wildcat (Felis silvestris)
  10. 再生可能エネルギー促進に向けたドイツの法的ステップ
  11. Students' perspectives on wheelchair basketball in mainstream and special schools
  12. Affective events and proactivity
  13. Re-Introducing Walther Schücking
  14. Foundations of Management & Entrepreneurship
  15. Effects of a temporary asymmetrical occlusion block on upper body posture
  16. archiDART v3.0
  17. The hidden power of language
  18. Local and global mechanical properties of orbital friction stir welding on API X65 PSL2 steel / Inconel 625 clad pipes
  19. P : Passivität
  20. Feedback on creative ideas
  21. Students' conceptions about the sense of smell
  22. Commentary to article 1
  23. Effects of an online- and video-based learning environment on pre-service teachers’ self-efficacy beliefs, attitudes towards inclusion and knowledge of inclusive education during practical school experiences
  24. Multitrophic effects of experimental changes in plant diversity on cavity-nesting bees, wasps, and their parasitoids
  25. Die Reregulierung der Versicherungsvermittler
  26. Board gender diversity and carbon emissions
  27. Perspective as Practice. Renaissance Cultures of Optics, (About the development of optics and perspective between the fifteenth and seventeenth centuries) (TECHNE 1) Dupré, Sven (ed.): Brepols, Turnhout 2019
  28. You could be lucky
  29. Unterrichtsqualität an Hamburger Grundschulen
  30. Fehr on Human Altruism (Editorial)
  31. Gamification