TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenarios for coal-exit in Germany-a model-based analysis and implications in the European context

AU - Kittel, Martin

AU - Goeke, Leonard

AU - Kemfert, Claudia

AU - Oei, Pao Yu

AU - Hirschhausen, Christian von

N1 - Funding: This research was supported by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) under grant number 01LN1704A for the research group CoalExit and under grant number 01LA1810A/ 01LA1810B for the research project “Future of Fossil Fuels in the wake of greenhouse gas neutrality”.

PY - 2020/4/20

Y1 - 2020/4/20

N2 - The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany's electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan (“coal-exit”). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of coal generation capacities and the limiting of how much aged coal power plants with high carbon intensity can be used within a year. Results show that phasing out coal in Germany would have a considerable impact on Central European electricity markets, in terms of decarbonization efforts and electricity trade. An ambitious coal-exit could avert foreseeable shortcomings in Germany's climate performance in the short-run and release additional carbon savings, thus compensating for potential shortfalls in other energy-intensive sectors by 2030. Limited emissions in the range of 27% would be shifted to neighboring countries. However, tremendous positive climate effects on European scale would result, because Germany's annual emission savings in 2030 would be substantial. Totaling 85 million tons of CO2, the overall net reduction is equivalent to 17.5% of total European emissions in 2030 without retirements of coal-firing power plants prior to the end of their technical lifespan.

AB - The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany's electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan (“coal-exit”). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of coal generation capacities and the limiting of how much aged coal power plants with high carbon intensity can be used within a year. Results show that phasing out coal in Germany would have a considerable impact on Central European electricity markets, in terms of decarbonization efforts and electricity trade. An ambitious coal-exit could avert foreseeable shortcomings in Germany's climate performance in the short-run and release additional carbon savings, thus compensating for potential shortfalls in other energy-intensive sectors by 2030. Limited emissions in the range of 27% would be shifted to neighboring countries. However, tremendous positive climate effects on European scale would result, because Germany's annual emission savings in 2030 would be substantial. Totaling 85 million tons of CO2, the overall net reduction is equivalent to 17.5% of total European emissions in 2030 without retirements of coal-firing power plants prior to the end of their technical lifespan.

KW - Economics

KW - Climate policy

KW - Coal phase-out

KW - Electricity modeling

KW - Energiewende

KW - Energy policy

KW - Energy transition

KW - Germany

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85084108164&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3390/en13082041

DO - 10.3390/en13082041

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85084108164

VL - 13

JO - Energies

JF - Energies

SN - 1996-1073

IS - 8

M1 - 2041

ER -