TY - JOUR

T1 - Investigating habitat-specific plant species pools under climate change

AU - Pompe, Sven

AU - Hanspach, Jan

AU - Badeck, Franz-W.

AU - Klotz, Stefan

AU - Bruelheide, Helge

AU - Kühn, Ingolf

N1 - Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2010/11/1

Y1 - 2010/11/1

N2 - We used 474 European plant species to analyse the impacts of climate and land-use change on the composition of habitat-specific species pools in Germany. We quantified changes in the probability of occurrence of species in a grid cell using an ensemble of three statistical modelling techniques, namely generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forests (RFs), under three scenarios (average change +2.2, +2.9, and +3.8°C up to 2080). We evaluated the impact on single species occurrence and resulting species pools considering their affiliation to ten major terrestrial habitat types in both current (1961-90) and future projections (2051-80). Current habitat-specific species pools declined in size across all scenarios, e.g. by 24 ± 13% (mean ± s.d.) under the most severe scenario. We show that species responses may strongly vary among scenarios and different habitats with a minimum average projected range loss of 14% (±18%; species typical to urban habitats under moderate climate change assumptions, average temperature increase +2.2°C) to a maximum average projected range loss of 56% (±29%; species assemblages from mountain communities below the alpine zone at +3.8°C). A separate analysis of species composition in habitat-specific species pools revealed a significant interaction between the scenario and the major habitat classes. We found a higher risk for habitat types with high conservation value characterised by a significant association between number of nationally endangered species and projected range loss in major habitats. Thus, habitat-specific management and application of measures favouring dispersal are required for mitigation of climate change impacts.

AB - We used 474 European plant species to analyse the impacts of climate and land-use change on the composition of habitat-specific species pools in Germany. We quantified changes in the probability of occurrence of species in a grid cell using an ensemble of three statistical modelling techniques, namely generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forests (RFs), under three scenarios (average change +2.2, +2.9, and +3.8°C up to 2080). We evaluated the impact on single species occurrence and resulting species pools considering their affiliation to ten major terrestrial habitat types in both current (1961-90) and future projections (2051-80). Current habitat-specific species pools declined in size across all scenarios, e.g. by 24 ± 13% (mean ± s.d.) under the most severe scenario. We show that species responses may strongly vary among scenarios and different habitats with a minimum average projected range loss of 14% (±18%; species typical to urban habitats under moderate climate change assumptions, average temperature increase +2.2°C) to a maximum average projected range loss of 56% (±29%; species assemblages from mountain communities below the alpine zone at +3.8°C). A separate analysis of species composition in habitat-specific species pools revealed a significant interaction between the scenario and the major habitat classes. We found a higher risk for habitat types with high conservation value characterised by a significant association between number of nationally endangered species and projected range loss in major habitats. Thus, habitat-specific management and application of measures favouring dispersal are required for mitigation of climate change impacts.

KW - Environmental planning

KW - climate change impacts

KW - Range change

KW - Plant species distribution modelling

KW - dissimilarity Germany

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78649445576&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.baae.2010.08.007

DO - 10.1016/j.baae.2010.08.007

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:78649445576

VL - 11

SP - 603

EP - 611

JO - Basic and Applied Ecology

JF - Basic and Applied Ecology

SN - 1439-1791

IS - 7

ER -