Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

Research output: Working paperWorking papers

Standard

Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach. / Berlemann, Michael; Enkelmann, Sören; Kuhlenkasper, Torben.
Hamburg: Hamburg Institute of International Economics, 2012. (HWWI Research Paper; No. 118).

Research output: Working paperWorking papers

Harvard

Berlemann, M, Enkelmann, S & Kuhlenkasper, T 2012 'Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach' HWWI Research Paper, no. 118, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg. <http://hdl.handle.net/10419/55836>

APA

Berlemann, M., Enkelmann, S., & Kuhlenkasper, T. (2012). Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach. (HWWI Research Paper; No. 118). Hamburg Institute of International Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/55836

Vancouver

Berlemann M, Enkelmann S, Kuhlenkasper T. Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach. Hamburg: Hamburg Institute of International Economics. 2012. (HWWI Research Paper; 118).

Bibtex

@techreport{e871900249b94e29b24d28ff71a54c6f,
title = "Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach",
abstract = "In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models we allow for a-priori unspecified non-linear effects of possible economic determinants of presidential popularity. We find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval and present empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of interaction effects between the economic variables. Additionally we give supporting evidence for the existence of honeymoon and nostalgia effects as well as general decline of support over time.",
keywords = "Economics",
author = "Michael Berlemann and S{\"o}ren Enkelmann and Torben Kuhlenkasper",
year = "2012",
language = "English",
series = "HWWI Research Paper",
publisher = "Hamburg Institute of International Economics",
number = "118",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Hamburg Institute of International Economics",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval

T2 - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

AU - Berlemann, Michael

AU - Enkelmann, Sören

AU - Kuhlenkasper, Torben

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models we allow for a-priori unspecified non-linear effects of possible economic determinants of presidential popularity. We find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval and present empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of interaction effects between the economic variables. Additionally we give supporting evidence for the existence of honeymoon and nostalgia effects as well as general decline of support over time.

AB - In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models we allow for a-priori unspecified non-linear effects of possible economic determinants of presidential popularity. We find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval and present empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of interaction effects between the economic variables. Additionally we give supporting evidence for the existence of honeymoon and nostalgia effects as well as general decline of support over time.

KW - Economics

M3 - Working papers

T3 - HWWI Research Paper

BT - Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval

PB - Hamburg Institute of International Economics

CY - Hamburg

ER -

Links