Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach
Research output: Working paper › Working papers
Standard
Hamburg: Hamburg Institute of International Economics, 2012. (HWWI Research Paper; No. 118).
Research output: Working paper › Working papers
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
T1 - Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval
T2 - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach
AU - Berlemann, Michael
AU - Enkelmann, Sören
AU - Kuhlenkasper, Torben
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models we allow for a-priori unspecified non-linear effects of possible economic determinants of presidential popularity. We find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval and present empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of interaction effects between the economic variables. Additionally we give supporting evidence for the existence of honeymoon and nostalgia effects as well as general decline of support over time.
AB - In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models we allow for a-priori unspecified non-linear effects of possible economic determinants of presidential popularity. We find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval and present empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of interaction effects between the economic variables. Additionally we give supporting evidence for the existence of honeymoon and nostalgia effects as well as general decline of support over time.
KW - Economics
M3 - Working papers
T3 - HWWI Research Paper
BT - Unraveling the Complexity of U.S. Presidential Approval
PB - Hamburg Institute of International Economics
CY - Hamburg
ER -