Spatial predictions for the distribution of woody plant species under different land-use scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia
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In: Landscape Ecology, Vol. 38, No. 5, 05.2023, p. 1249-1263.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial predictions for the distribution of woody plant species under different land-use scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia
AU - Duguma, Dula Wakassa
AU - Law, Elizabeth
AU - Shumi, Girma
AU - Rodrigues, Patrícia
AU - Senbeta, Feyera
AU - Schultner, Jannik
AU - Abson, David J.
AU - Fischer, Joern
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).
PY - 2023/5
Y1 - 2023/5
N2 - Context: Deforestation, forest degradation and intensification of farming threaten terrestrial biodiversity. As these land-use changes accelerate in many landscapes, especially in the Global South, it is vital to anticipate how future changes might impact specific aspects of biodiversity. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to model woody plant species richness in southwestern Ethiopia, for the present and for four plausible, spatially explicit scenarios of the future (‘Gain over grain’, ‘Mining green gold’, ‘Coffee and conservation’ and ‘Food first’). Methods: We used cross-validated generalized linear models for both forest and farmland, to relate empirical data on total and forest-specialist woody plant species richness to indicators of human disturbance and environmental conditions. We projected these across current and future scenario landscapes. Results: In both farmland and forest, richness peaked at intermediate elevations (except for total species richness in farmland) and decreased with distance to the forest edge (except for forest specialist richness in forest). Our results indicate that the ‘Mining green gold’ and ‘Food first’ scenarios would result in strong losses of biodiversity, whereas the ‘Gain over grain’ scenario largely maintained biodiversity relative to the baseline. Only the ‘Coffee and conservation’ scenario, which incorporates a new biosphere reserve, showed positive changes for biodiversity that are likely viable in the long term. Conclusions: The creation of a biosphere reserve could maintain and improve woody plant richness in the focal region, by forming a cluster with existing reserves, would be a major step forward for sustainability in southwestern Ethiopia.
AB - Context: Deforestation, forest degradation and intensification of farming threaten terrestrial biodiversity. As these land-use changes accelerate in many landscapes, especially in the Global South, it is vital to anticipate how future changes might impact specific aspects of biodiversity. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to model woody plant species richness in southwestern Ethiopia, for the present and for four plausible, spatially explicit scenarios of the future (‘Gain over grain’, ‘Mining green gold’, ‘Coffee and conservation’ and ‘Food first’). Methods: We used cross-validated generalized linear models for both forest and farmland, to relate empirical data on total and forest-specialist woody plant species richness to indicators of human disturbance and environmental conditions. We projected these across current and future scenario landscapes. Results: In both farmland and forest, richness peaked at intermediate elevations (except for total species richness in farmland) and decreased with distance to the forest edge (except for forest specialist richness in forest). Our results indicate that the ‘Mining green gold’ and ‘Food first’ scenarios would result in strong losses of biodiversity, whereas the ‘Gain over grain’ scenario largely maintained biodiversity relative to the baseline. Only the ‘Coffee and conservation’ scenario, which incorporates a new biosphere reserve, showed positive changes for biodiversity that are likely viable in the long term. Conclusions: The creation of a biosphere reserve could maintain and improve woody plant richness in the focal region, by forming a cluster with existing reserves, would be a major step forward for sustainability in southwestern Ethiopia.
KW - Forest specialist richness
KW - Land use scenarios
KW - Southwestern Ethiopia
KW - Spatial prediction
KW - Total species richness
KW - Woody plants
KW - Biology
KW - Environmental planning
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85148890579&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/9d2bd66d-f7e1-3370-9795-3b8076c95a76/
U2 - 10.1007/s10980-023-01614-0
DO - 10.1007/s10980-023-01614-0
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85148890579
VL - 38
SP - 1249
EP - 1263
JO - Landscape Ecology
JF - Landscape Ecology
SN - 0921-2973
IS - 5
ER -