Polycrisis patterns: applying system archetypes to crisis interactions

Research output: Journal contributionsScientific review articlesResearch

Authors

  • David Collste
  • Cristina I. Apetrei
  • Linda Booth Sweeney
  • Jessica Lynch Boucher
  • Jenson Chong Leng Goh
  • Olivier Hamant
  • Christoph E. Mandl
  • Gillian S. Martin Mehers
  • Riichiro Oda
  • Bert J.M. De Vries

Non-technical summary: The world is facing multiple interconnected crises, from climate change and economic instability to social inequalities and geopolitical tensions. These crises do not occur in isolation; instead, they interact, reinforce each other, and create unexpected ripple effects - forming what is known as a polycrisis. Traditional ways of analysing problems often fail to grasp these interdependencies, making it difficult to find effective responses. We draw on system archetypes to describe and exemplify three polycrisis patterns. These provide a structured way to analyse how multiple crises unfold and interact, as well as insights into how to navigate such complexity. Technical summary: The concept of a polycrisis describes the complex interconnections between global issues, which can lead to unexpected emergent behaviours and the possible convergence of undesirable impacts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating compounded effects and for identifying leverage points for effective intervention. We propose that system archetypes - generic structures in system dynamics that capture recurring patterns of behaviour - can serve as a useful analytical tool to study polycrises. Specifically, we reinterpret three key system archetypes in this context: Converging Constraints (based on the Limits to Growth system archetype), Deepening Divides (based on Success to the Successful system archetype), and Crisis Deferral (drawing from the Policy Resistance system archetype). These patterns illustrate how resource limitations, structural inequalities, and short-term solutions can sustain or worsen crisis dynamics. Using real-world examples, we show how polycrisis patterns can be employed to map feedback structures between interacting crises and to guide effective interventions. Our work contributes to a more structured and systemic understanding of polycrises, by providing a tool to help researchers and policymakers better anticipate, navigate, and mitigate their effects. Social media summary: 'Polycrisis patterns reveal how crises like climate change, economic instability, and inequality interact, amplifying their impacts'.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere17
JournalGlobal Sustainability
Volume8
Number of pages11
ISSN2059-4798
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 20.05.2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Cambridge University Press.

DOI

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Trans pixelate substitution scheme for denoising computed tomography images towards high diagnosis accuracy
  2. Drawing as a Generative Activity and Drawing as a Prognostic Activity
  3. To settle or protect? A global analysis of net primary production in parks and urban areas
  4. Worauf warten?
  5. Thinking and Diagrams - An Introduction
  6. Making mutual learning tangible
  7. Emergency Politics After Globalization
  8. Introduction
  9. The Role of Formalisation, Participation and Context in the Success of Public Involvement Mechanisms in Resource Management
  10. Secondary task as a measure of cognitive load
  11. Neural Networks for Energy Optimization of Production Processes in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises
  12. Path dependence and technological expectations in transport policy
  13. Real fake? Appropriating mobility via Schengen visa in the context of biometric border controls
  14. Influence of Dy in solid solution on the degradation behavior of binary Mg-Dy alloys in cell culture medium
  15. Jointly experimenting for transformation?
  16. A Developmental Trend in the Structure of Time-Estimation Performance
  17. Acquisition in Interlanguage Pragmatics
  18. Dynamic capabilities and routinization
  19. Investigation of new tool design for incremental profile forming
  20. The State of Multimedia Mass-Balance Modeling in Environmental science and decision-making
  21. NEW CONCEPTS IN INNOVATION OUTPUT MEASUREMENT - KLEINKNECHT,A, BAIN,D
  22. Implicit Mental Processes in Ethical Management Behavior
  23. Why Being Democratic is Just Not Enough
  24. Efficacy of a Self-Help Web-Based Recovery Training in Improving Sleep in Workers
  25. Digital twin support for laser-based assembly assistance
  26. Analyzing Pragmatic Variation in English