TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

AU - Ohse, Bettina

AU - Huettmann, Falk

AU - Ickert-Bond, Stefanie M.

AU - Juday, Glenn P.

PY - 2009/12

Y1 - 2009/12

N2 - Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska (4 km resolution, accuracy over 90%). Our presented concept represents a role-model for predicting tree species distribution for remote areas world-wide. Although this model intends to be accurate in making predictions rather than to give detailed biological mechanistic explanations, it can also be used as a baseline for further research and testable hypothesis on the importance of the environmental variables used to build a generalizable model. Further, we emphasize that work like presented here is a pre-condition for assessing human impacts and impacts of climate change on species distribution in a quantitative and transparent fashion, allowing for improved sustainable decision-making world-wide.

AB - Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska (4 km resolution, accuracy over 90%). Our presented concept represents a role-model for predicting tree species distribution for remote areas world-wide. Although this model intends to be accurate in making predictions rather than to give detailed biological mechanistic explanations, it can also be used as a baseline for further research and testable hypothesis on the importance of the environmental variables used to build a generalizable model. Further, we emphasize that work like presented here is a pre-condition for assessing human impacts and impacts of climate change on species distribution in a quantitative and transparent fashion, allowing for improved sustainable decision-making world-wide.

KW - Ecosystems Research

KW - Species distribution models (SDM)

KW - White spruce Picea glauca

KW - Alaska

KW - Tree species

KW - Predictive modeling

KW - Open access (oa)

U2 - 10.1007/s00300-009-0671-9

DO - 10.1007/s00300-009-0671-9

M3 - Journal articles

VL - 32

SP - 1717

EP - 1729

JO - Polar Biology

JF - Polar Biology

SN - 0722-4060

IS - 12

ER -