TY - JOUR

T1 - Fading Shooting Stars—The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer

AU - Tohoff, Lukas

AU - Mechtel, Mario

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.

PY - 2025/4/1

Y1 - 2025/4/1

N2 - This article analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer. We hypothesize that, to get selected by elite youth academies, players with relative age disadvantages must be relatively more talented; especially at the margin of getting selected. Using data on 2,383 former elite youth players and their later market values, we show that the RAE was substantial in German elite youth soccer between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, in the sample of former elite youth academy players, those with relative age disadvantages reach significantly higher market values. Our results indicate that relative age disadvantages of elite academy players are positively correlated with their unobserved ability; suggesting that, on average, the RAE results in a loss of talent—and market value. We find that clubs could generate 30.6 to 72.8% higher market values without the RAE.

AB - This article analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer. We hypothesize that, to get selected by elite youth academies, players with relative age disadvantages must be relatively more talented; especially at the margin of getting selected. Using data on 2,383 former elite youth players and their later market values, we show that the RAE was substantial in German elite youth soccer between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, in the sample of former elite youth academy players, those with relative age disadvantages reach significantly higher market values. Our results indicate that relative age disadvantages of elite academy players are positively correlated with their unobserved ability; suggesting that, on average, the RAE results in a loss of talent—and market value. We find that clubs could generate 30.6 to 72.8% higher market values without the RAE.

KW - D71

KW - I24

KW - I26

KW - J24

KW - M51

KW - M53

KW - misallocation of talent

KW - relative age effect in elite youth soccer

KW - selection, market values

KW - unobserved ability

KW - Z22

KW - Economics

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105002658102&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/15270025251320958

DO - 10.1177/15270025251320958

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:105002658102

VL - 26

SP - 499

EP - 542

JO - Journal of Sports Economics

JF - Journal of Sports Economics

SN - 1527-0025

IS - 5

ER -