Fading Shooting Stars—The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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in: Journal of Sports Economics, Jahrgang 26, Nr. 5, 06.2025, S. 499-542.
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Fading Shooting Stars—The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer
AU - Tohoff, Lukas
AU - Mechtel, Mario
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.
PY - 2025/6
Y1 - 2025/6
N2 - This article analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer. We hypothesize that, to get selected by elite youth academies, players with relative age disadvantages must be relatively more talented; especially at the margin of getting selected. Using data on 2,383 former elite youth players and their later market values, we show that the RAE was substantial in German elite youth soccer between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, in the sample of former elite youth academy players, those with relative age disadvantages reach significantly higher market values. Our results indicate that relative age disadvantages of elite academy players are positively correlated with their unobserved ability; suggesting that, on average, the RAE results in a loss of talent—and market value. We find that clubs could generate 30.6 to 72.8% higher market values without the RAE.
AB - This article analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer. We hypothesize that, to get selected by elite youth academies, players with relative age disadvantages must be relatively more talented; especially at the margin of getting selected. Using data on 2,383 former elite youth players and their later market values, we show that the RAE was substantial in German elite youth soccer between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, in the sample of former elite youth academy players, those with relative age disadvantages reach significantly higher market values. Our results indicate that relative age disadvantages of elite academy players are positively correlated with their unobserved ability; suggesting that, on average, the RAE results in a loss of talent—and market value. We find that clubs could generate 30.6 to 72.8% higher market values without the RAE.
KW - misallocation of talent
KW - relative age effect in elite youth soccer
KW - market values
KW - unobserved ability
KW - selection
KW - Economics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105002658102&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/15270025251320958
DO - 10.1177/15270025251320958
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:105002658102
VL - 26
SP - 499
EP - 542
JO - Journal of Sports Economics
JF - Journal of Sports Economics
SN - 1527-0025
IS - 5
ER -