Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearch

Authors

  • Sven Pompe
  • Jan Hanspach
  • Franz Badeck
  • Stefan Klotz
  • Wilfried Thuiller
  • Ingolf Kühn

We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally - averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

Original languageEnglish
JournalBiology Letters
Volume4
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)564-567
Number of pages4
ISSN1744-9561
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23.10.2008
Externally publishedYes

    Research areas

  • Ecosystems Research - Ecosystem, Geography, Germany, Greenhouse Effect, Models, Biological, Plants

DOI

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