'Where is everybody?' An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

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'Where is everybody?' An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe. / Engler, John Oliver; Von Wehrden, Henrik.

in: International Journal of Astrobiology, Jahrgang 18, Nr. 6, 01.12.2019, S. 495-501.

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

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@article{c2f6fea623b54a6b9e30539708e08371,
title = "'Where is everybody?' An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe",
abstract = "We use recent results from astrobiology, particularly the A-form of the Drake equation and combine it with data on the evolution of life on Earth to obtain a new assessment of the prevalence of technological species in our Universe. A species is technological if it is, in theory, capable of interstellar communication. We find that between seven and 300 technological species have likely arisen in the Milky Way until today, the current state of which however unknown. Assuming that we are currently alone in our Galaxy, we estimate that we would need to wait for roughly 26 million years for a 50% chance of another technological species to arise. By relating our results to the much-debated Fermi-Hart paradox, we discuss if and to what extent our results may help quantify the chances of humanity to manage the transition to a long-term sustainable path of existence.",
keywords = "Drake equation, extraterrestrial intelligence, future of humanity, SETI, sustainability, Sustainability Science, Biology",
author = "Engler, {John Oliver} and {Von Wehrden}, Henrik",
year = "2019",
month = dec,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1017/S1473550418000496",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
pages = "495--501",
journal = "International Journal of Astrobiology",
issn = "1473-5504",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - 'Where is everybody?' An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe

AU - Engler, John Oliver

AU - Von Wehrden, Henrik

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - We use recent results from astrobiology, particularly the A-form of the Drake equation and combine it with data on the evolution of life on Earth to obtain a new assessment of the prevalence of technological species in our Universe. A species is technological if it is, in theory, capable of interstellar communication. We find that between seven and 300 technological species have likely arisen in the Milky Way until today, the current state of which however unknown. Assuming that we are currently alone in our Galaxy, we estimate that we would need to wait for roughly 26 million years for a 50% chance of another technological species to arise. By relating our results to the much-debated Fermi-Hart paradox, we discuss if and to what extent our results may help quantify the chances of humanity to manage the transition to a long-term sustainable path of existence.

AB - We use recent results from astrobiology, particularly the A-form of the Drake equation and combine it with data on the evolution of life on Earth to obtain a new assessment of the prevalence of technological species in our Universe. A species is technological if it is, in theory, capable of interstellar communication. We find that between seven and 300 technological species have likely arisen in the Milky Way until today, the current state of which however unknown. Assuming that we are currently alone in our Galaxy, we estimate that we would need to wait for roughly 26 million years for a 50% chance of another technological species to arise. By relating our results to the much-debated Fermi-Hart paradox, we discuss if and to what extent our results may help quantify the chances of humanity to manage the transition to a long-term sustainable path of existence.

KW - Drake equation

KW - extraterrestrial intelligence

KW - future of humanity

KW - SETI

KW - sustainability

KW - Sustainability Science

KW - Biology

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060254915&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S1473550418000496

DO - 10.1017/S1473550418000496

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85060254915

VL - 18

SP - 495

EP - 501

JO - International Journal of Astrobiology

JF - International Journal of Astrobiology

SN - 1473-5504

IS - 6

ER -

DOI