'Where is everybody?' An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe
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In: International Journal of Astrobiology, Vol. 18, No. 6, 01.12.2019, p. 495-501.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - 'Where is everybody?' An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe
AU - Engler, John Oliver
AU - Von Wehrden, Henrik
PY - 2019/12/1
Y1 - 2019/12/1
N2 - We use recent results from astrobiology, particularly the A-form of the Drake equation and combine it with data on the evolution of life on Earth to obtain a new assessment of the prevalence of technological species in our Universe. A species is technological if it is, in theory, capable of interstellar communication. We find that between seven and 300 technological species have likely arisen in the Milky Way until today, the current state of which however unknown. Assuming that we are currently alone in our Galaxy, we estimate that we would need to wait for roughly 26 million years for a 50% chance of another technological species to arise. By relating our results to the much-debated Fermi-Hart paradox, we discuss if and to what extent our results may help quantify the chances of humanity to manage the transition to a long-term sustainable path of existence.
AB - We use recent results from astrobiology, particularly the A-form of the Drake equation and combine it with data on the evolution of life on Earth to obtain a new assessment of the prevalence of technological species in our Universe. A species is technological if it is, in theory, capable of interstellar communication. We find that between seven and 300 technological species have likely arisen in the Milky Way until today, the current state of which however unknown. Assuming that we are currently alone in our Galaxy, we estimate that we would need to wait for roughly 26 million years for a 50% chance of another technological species to arise. By relating our results to the much-debated Fermi-Hart paradox, we discuss if and to what extent our results may help quantify the chances of humanity to manage the transition to a long-term sustainable path of existence.
KW - Drake equation
KW - extraterrestrial intelligence
KW - future of humanity
KW - SETI
KW - sustainability
KW - Sustainability Science
KW - Biology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060254915&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S1473550418000496
DO - 10.1017/S1473550418000496
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85060254915
VL - 18
SP - 495
EP - 501
JO - International Journal of Astrobiology
JF - International Journal of Astrobiology
SN - 1473-5504
IS - 6
ER -