TY - JOUR

T1 - The termination of international sanctions

T2 - explaining target compliance and sender capitulation

AU - Attia, Hana

AU - Grauvogel, Julia

AU - von Soest, Christian

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

PY - 2020/10

Y1 - 2020/10

N2 - With the proliferation of sanctions after the end of the Cold War, the termination of these punitive measures has become a ubiquitous phenomenon in international politics. Yet, research has hitherto almost exclusively focused on sanctions’ implementation and effectiveness, whereas their termination has received little attention. In this paper, we draw on studies analyzing the varying duration of sanctions to examine under which conditions they end. In contrast to prior research that has mostly treated the end of sanctions as a single category, our analysis disaggregates sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. We run a competing risks model using novel dyadic sanctions data and show that the determinants of both outcomes significantly diverge. While poor economic health and high political volatility in the target country make it significantly more likely to comply, political alignment between the sender and target and leadership changes in the sender country lead to a higher probability of sender capitulation.

AB - With the proliferation of sanctions after the end of the Cold War, the termination of these punitive measures has become a ubiquitous phenomenon in international politics. Yet, research has hitherto almost exclusively focused on sanctions’ implementation and effectiveness, whereas their termination has received little attention. In this paper, we draw on studies analyzing the varying duration of sanctions to examine under which conditions they end. In contrast to prior research that has mostly treated the end of sanctions as a single category, our analysis disaggregates sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. We run a competing risks model using novel dyadic sanctions data and show that the determinants of both outcomes significantly diverge. While poor economic health and high political volatility in the target country make it significantly more likely to comply, political alignment between the sender and target and leadership changes in the sender country lead to a higher probability of sender capitulation.

KW - Sanctions

KW - Sanctions termination

KW - Sender capitulation

KW - Target compliance

KW - Politics

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089951412&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103565

DO - 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103565

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85089951412

VL - 129

JO - European Economic Review

JF - European Economic Review

SN - 0014-2921

M1 - 103565

ER -