Plausibility indications in future scenarios
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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Plausibility indications in future scenarios. / Wiek, Arnim; Withycombe Keeler, Lauren; Schweizer, Vanessa et al.
in: International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, Jahrgang 9, Nr. 2-4, 2013, S. 133-147.Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Plausibility indications in future scenarios
AU - Wiek, Arnim
AU - Withycombe Keeler, Lauren
AU - Schweizer, Vanessa
AU - Lang, Daniel J.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-à-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered 'occurrable'. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.
AB - Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-à-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered 'occurrable'. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.
KW - Sustainability Science
KW - plausibility
KW - future studies
KW - scenarios
KW - sustainability
KW - anticipatory knowledge
KW - foresight
KW - scenario assessment
KW - probability
KW - Anticipatory knowledge
KW - Foresight
KW - Future studies
KW - Plausibility
KW - Probability
KW - Scenario assessment
KW - Scenarios
KW - Sustainability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893124587&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611
DO - 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611
M3 - Journal articles
VL - 9
SP - 133
EP - 147
JO - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
JF - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
SN - 1740-2816
IS - 2-4
ER -