TY - JOUR

T1 - Plausibility indications in future scenarios

AU - Wiek, Arnim

AU - Withycombe Keeler, Lauren

AU - Schweizer, Vanessa

AU - Lang, Daniel J.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-à-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered 'occurrable'. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.

AB - Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-à-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered 'occurrable'. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.

KW - Sustainability Science

KW - plausibility

KW - future studies

KW - scenarios

KW - sustainability

KW - anticipatory knowledge

KW - foresight

KW - scenario assessment

KW - probability

KW - Anticipatory knowledge

KW - Foresight

KW - Future studies

KW - Plausibility

KW - Probability

KW - Scenario assessment

KW - Scenarios

KW - Sustainability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893124587&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611

DO - 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611

M3 - Journal articles

VL - 9

SP - 133

EP - 147

JO - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy

JF - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy

SN - 1740-2816

IS - 2-4

ER -