Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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in: Journal of Sports Analytics, Jahrgang 7, Nr. 1, 05.04.2021, S. 37-46.
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions
AU - Ekstrom, Claus Thorn
AU - Van Eetvelde, Hans
AU - Ley, Christophe
AU - Brefeld, Ulf
PY - 2021/4/5
Y1 - 2021/4/5
N2 - We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS handles partial ranking of teams, gives credit to predictions that are only slightly wrong, and can be modified with weights to stress the importance of particular features of the tournament prediction. Thus, the Tournament Rank Prediction Score is more flexible than the commonly preferred log loss score for such tasks. In addition, we show how predictions from historic tournaments can be optimally combined into ensemble predictions in order to maximize the TRPS for a new tournament.
AB - We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS handles partial ranking of teams, gives credit to predictions that are only slightly wrong, and can be modified with weights to stress the importance of particular features of the tournament prediction. Thus, the Tournament Rank Prediction Score is more flexible than the commonly preferred log loss score for such tasks. In addition, we show how predictions from historic tournaments can be optimally combined into ensemble predictions in order to maximize the TRPS for a new tournament.
KW - Tournament prediction
KW - rank probability score
KW - sport prediction
KW - ensemble predictions
KW - Informatics
KW - Business informatics
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/3cfdf972-c343-3391-b884-8f631a241695/
U2 - 10.3233/JSA-200454
DO - 10.3233/JSA-200454
M3 - Journal articles
VL - 7
SP - 37
EP - 46
JO - Journal of Sports Analytics
JF - Journal of Sports Analytics
SN - 2215-020X
IS - 1
ER -