Unraveling the relationship between presidential approval and the economy: A multidimensional semiparametric approach
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
Standard
In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 30, No. 3, 01.04.2015, p. 468-486.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Unraveling the relationship between presidential approval and the economy
T2 - A multidimensional semiparametric approach
AU - Berlemann, Michael
AU - Enkelmann, Sören
AU - Kuhlenkasper, Torben
PY - 2015/4/1
Y1 - 2015/4/1
N2 - Summary: Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.
AB - Summary: Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.
KW - Economics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84927178619&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/jae.2380
DO - 10.1002/jae.2380
M3 - Journal articles
VL - 30
SP - 468
EP - 486
JO - Journal of Applied Econometrics
JF - Journal of Applied Econometrics
SN - 0883-7252
IS - 3
ER -