TY - JOUR

T1 - Unraveling the relationship between presidential approval and the economy

T2 - A multidimensional semiparametric approach

AU - Berlemann, Michael

AU - Enkelmann, Sören

AU - Kuhlenkasper, Torben

PY - 2015/4/1

Y1 - 2015/4/1

N2 - Summary: Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

AB - Summary: Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

KW - Economics

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84927178619&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/jae.2380

DO - 10.1002/jae.2380

M3 - Journal articles

VL - 30

SP - 468

EP - 486

JO - Journal of Applied Econometrics

JF - Journal of Applied Econometrics

SN - 0883-7252

IS - 3

ER -