The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market
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In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 110, 01.09.2016, p. 196-212.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The future of rail automation
T2 - A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market
AU - Hansen, Christoph
AU - Daim, Tugrul
AU - Ernst, Horst
AU - Herstatt, Cornelius
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2016 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2016/9/1
Y1 - 2016/9/1
N2 - This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.
AB - This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.
KW - Germany
KW - Rail automation
KW - Scenarios
KW - Technology roadmap
KW - Management studies
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84954305975&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:84954305975
VL - 110
SP - 196
EP - 212
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
SN - 0040-1625
ER -