The delay vector variance method and the recurrence quantification analysis of energy markets

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

Deregulation in the energy industry poses many challenges because energy plays a significant role in the economies of every nation. The identification of power spikes and the likelihood of power crisis is important to prevent the collapse of the energy sector that can severely affect economies. This paper employs the recently proposed “delay vector variance” method, which examines local predictability of a signal in the phase space to detect the presence of deterministic and non-linearity in time series. The DVV approach utilizes optimal embedding parameters that are obtained via a differential entropy based method using wavelet-based surrogates. The concept of (cross)-recurrence quantification analysis is used to study energy markets in order to locate hidden patterns, non-stationarity, potential spikes and examine the nature of these plots in the event of crisis in the energy and financial sector. Specifically, the recurrence plots are employed to detect and characterize seasonal cycles. The feasibility of these methods are provided with a focus on some emerging European power markets that are useful in the diagnosis and detection of potential power spikes, which is significantly impacted by economic downturns and other main drivers of imbalances in power markets.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1650001
JournalInternational Journal of Energy and Statistics
Volume4
Issue number1
Number of pages31
ISSN2335-6804
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31.03.2016

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Measuring cognitive load with subjective rating scales during problem solving
  2. A Playful Approach to Interactive Media in the Foreign Language Classroom
  3. Understanding the modes of use and availability of critical metals-An expert-based scenario analysis for the case of indium
  4. Increased Reliability of Draw-In Prediction in a Single Stage Deep-Drawing Operation via Transfer Learning
  5. Is the Y/F Index Suitable for Population Genetic Studies?
  6. Degrees of Integration
  7. Experimental Verification of the Impact of Radial Internal Clearance on a Bearing's Dynamics
  8. Revisiting the tolerance limit of Fe impurity in biodegradable magnesium
  9. Cognitive verbs in discourse
  10. A comparison between private and public access rules to bottlenecks - experiences and expectations from telecommunication and energy
  11. The frame of the game
  12. Using machine learning to identify important predictors of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors during the early phase of the pandemic
  13. Development of a robust classifier of freshwater residence in barramundi (Lates calcarifer) life histories using elemental ratios in scales and boosted regression trees
  14. Pushing the Boundaries
  15. What do employers pay for employees’ complex problem solving skills?
  16. Construct Clean-Up in Proactivity Research
  17. Germination performance of native and non-native Ulmus pumila populations
  18. Stephanus
  19. Bifurcation loads of beams of glued-laminated timber with intermediate lateral supports
  20. "The (real) world is not enough:" Motivational drivers and user behavior in virtual worlds
  21. An EEG frequency tagging study on biological motion perception in children with DCD
  22. Measurements of atmospheric mercury with high time resolution
  23. Successful Application of Adaptive Emotion Regulation Skills Predicts the Subsequent Reduction of Depressive Symptom Severity but neither the Reduction of Anxiety nor the Reduction of General Distress during the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder
  24. Application of stress intensity factor superposition in residual stress fields considering crack closure
  25. Analysis of mechanical properties and microstructure of single and double-pass friction stir welded T-joints for aluminium stiffened Panels
  26. Self-determined or non-self-determined? Exploring consumer motivation for sustainable food choices
  27. The impact of supervisory board composition on CSR reporting